Nifty and Bank Nifty edged lower on the last trading session of the week after the RBI governor's strong warning on inflation and his hawkish comments and it is combined with weakness in Asian, European stocks, Rupee weakness and overnight losses for US stocks. Reality, Auto and Banking sectors are major losers as they are rate sensitive. Nifty opened better than expected but never looked to sustain at these levels and is in a one way path which is downwards through out the day and closed at 6267.
Shorterm trend
Nifty is now looking very weak with combination of Global and local data. RBI's hawkish statement has spooked the market and Rupee is getting weaker and above 63 rs we are going to see more pain. As per Fibonacci retracement level taking 5972 as low and 6416 as high we are have closed just above 6256 which is 61.8% retracement level and above 6194 which is 50% and next major support is 6142 which is 32.8%. The other key levels to watch are 50 day DMA and EMA are 6217 and 6214 and 100 DMA and EMA are 6100 and 6117. I expect market to find support only at 6135- 6140 levels before expiry and if it moves below this level the last hope is 6100 - 6110. The type of weakness we are seeing the market Nifty can close for this expiry any where between 6100 - 6150.
I stated in my last blog that every time we have moved towards 6350 we have reversed to lower levels and this has happened for fourth time in last 3 months and I also stated that when US is at one month low we are at 45 days high which is not going to sustain for too long and look at the way we have have come back and every time we come from these above 6330 levels we are seeing a sharp fall to 6130 - 6140 and this is bound to happen again for third time and first time when we have reached these levels during Diwali we have gone to 5972 levels. With the type of fall we are going to see on Monday which is going to be sub 6200 levels which is below 50 day DMA and EMA and also below 50% retracement. Nifty can be considered for higher levels only if it can close above 6255 levels for two consecutive days and below 6145 we are heading towards 6100 and 6040 levels.
Indian Rupee is weak above 63 and could go to 64.5 and also base metals are going to be weak and Gold is going to bullish if it can trade above 1250 and also Crude could go to 98 in international market.
Intraday Levels
Told you in Friday we are going down, look at the fall of Friday and also the gap down of nearly 100 points with the cues we are getting. The gap down we are getting is not ideal to trade today. I would buy Nifty above 6195 if it stays for 10 - 15 minutes for 6210 and 6225 and on the lower side, Nifty is sell if trades above 6195 and breaks down this level for 6180 and 6165 which is a good support. The last hope for Nifty is 6140 levels.
Tops pick of the day are
I suggest you to pick any PSU Bank and sell I am sure you will make money, but my top pics for the day are BankIndia, PNB, BankBaroda, Kotak Bank, JSW Steel, HCLTech, Idea and Asian Paints. Clear sells for the day are Banking, Auto, Reality(would sell on rise because of gap down) and buy in IT and FMCG. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.
Pivot Levels for Key stocks and Index
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