It has been shocker and no one expected this sudden pullback of this magnitude, though I expected a small pullback to sub 6160 to be frank I never expected this slide which could be because of profit booking. Nifty opened at 6191 and made a high of 6203.5 and low 6109 and was in a range through out the day till 2.30 PM when suddenly hell broke and we have seen sudden crash in the market. Indian stocks dropped due to caution ahead of the release of the minutes from the US Federal Reserve's last meeting, possibly providing clues to the timing of its plan to slow monetary stimulus to the US economy and partly because of profit booking. In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar on demand for greenbacks by state-run oil refiners and on weakness in domestic equities. We have seen decline in premium of Nifty futures which has come to 10 and where BankNifty futures which is the main culprit was trading at discount of 2. What has been visible is there is hardly any buying by FII's which is the main driving force for Nifty for its recent high from its low. See one days change in momentum has changed the trend of the market and you need to be very agile for all these changes with proper home work should trade.
Short term Trend
If we take Diwali high 6342 and recent low of 5972 on Nov, 13th as per Fib levels 38.2% retracement level is 6110 that is where Nifty took support and moved back to 6122, other way if we take Nov, 13th low of 5972 and Nov 11th High of 6212, Fib retracement level of 38.2% happens to be 6120 and nifty is now trading at this level and the next support level happens to be 6085 which is the last support area. As Long as Nifty is below 6155- 60 levels we are bearish and as indicated before Nifty failed to break the the 6240 level which is a medium term trend indicator and so we are still in medium term downtrend and if we close below 6085 we can also consider that we are in short term downtrend. I suggest not to go long till we get any convicing move from Nifty and instead should prefer to be in shorting side as I am expecting sub 6060 levels in next few days. I Still feel we may see new all time highs after Dec 8th with expected news of election results which may favor BJP.
Intraday Tend
Yesterday Nifty future failed to cross 6240 which is major resistance for any up move and with the way premium coming down I am expected more downside for Nifty as expiry is coming close and I suggest not to take long till we see real trend. With Nifty expted to open weak sub to around 6100 levels we I suggest to short below 6100 levels for 6085, 6070 and 6060 after initial consolidation and you can only go long above 6140 which is unlikely only if it can trade for 15 mins.
Must Trades for the day
Yesterday all my pics have done very well partly because of technical levels and also because of selling in broader market. I am expecting Centuty Text, Tata Steel, IndusInd, BankIndia, Titan and LT to do well. The logic is when the market is bearish stock picking becomes easy where in you can sell stocks which have run a lot. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.
Pivot levels of key stocks
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