Friday, 22 November 2013

Broader outlook for Nov 22nd

Key benchmark indices slumped after minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting signaled US stimulus may be reduced in coming months. Nifty settled at a tad below the psychological 6,000 mark, having swung alternately above and below that mark in late trade. Nifty was making lower lows through out the day after last pullback from its lows above the emotional level of 6000. Talking about Nifty open and high is of no use and I will avoid it. In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar which has added to fire. All the Nifty stocks traded in Red and it is second consecutive day of heavy selling. What should be noted is Dow closed highest ever above 16000.

Shortterm Trend
Nifty did its job of filling gaps formed in recent rally from 5972 to high of 6212 and all the gains have evoperated and it is again at square one. Nifty spot with thursday’s low of 5986 has not yet breached the critical 13th, Nov spot low of 5973, though Nifty future has breached its earlier swing low of 6009, but this is because of premium evoperation as we are near Expiry.  A close below 5973 spot will turn every one bearish to see  5920 and 5860-50 which is 200 DMA and are good supports and are last hope. If Nifty can protect its swing low of 5973 we could see consolidation at these levels and could see a small pullback towards higher side and will start its fall again. So, as of now short on rise is the best strategy till we see 6161 again which is unlikely soon, but long term trend is still intact. As I feel we are near to bottom for atleast few days it is better to be prepared for expiry as we may see lot volatility at these levels.

Intraday Level
Global cues are not bad and Nifty is expected to trade in a range and suggest shorters not to be complacent as we are approaching expiry.  Immediate trading support is psychological  6000 but if 5995 fails to hold for more than 10 minutes we could see Nifty drifting to 5980 and 5965, on the other side Nifty can be bought only above 6030 for 6045. Infact I prefer not to trade Nifty for today as we may see lot of whipsaws.


Must trades for the day

I can not take credit for yesterdays success in my picks because even my sons picks would have done extremely well :) .I am expecting IndusInd Bank, YesBank, Auro Pharma,JublFood and Lupin to do well.  For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.


Pivot levels of key stocks

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