I am away today and outlook is limited for Nov 29th

Nifty closed better than expected at 6090 in this expiry after It made a high of 6113 and low of 6068.

Shortterm Trend
Nifty is bullish again if it closes above 6161 and bearish below 6040 for short term.

Intraday Level
We may open flat as we do not have cues.Nifty can be bought above 6121 for 6135 and 6150 and below 6080 we could go to 6065 and 6050.

Stocks for the day
BHEL, Bharti Airtel, SBIN, LT, Adani Ent and Ambuja Cem

Broader outlook and Stocks for Nov 28th

Nifty opened at 6062 and made a high of 6074 which happens to be high of the day of the day and low it has made is 6030 and Nifty ended a tad lower for the day compared to previous day in what was a lacklustre trading session. Biggest mover of the day was TataMotors which has closed just below 400 is the leader yesteraday and not much is there to discuss other than that.

ShortTerm Trend
The market may remain volatile today, as traders roll over positions in the futures & options (F&O) segment from current to next mont December 2013 series. India VIX was still above 21 which is not a good sign. Trend is still down as we are below key resistance level of 6060 for second day. As of now 6040 is holding despite many efforts of Nifty since two days. Trend will be decided only if Nifty closes below 5972 or above 6161 for any decisive move.This month we have seen alltime high 6342 of and low of 5972.


Intraday
Nifty could open higher and I feel nothing can be taken granted as we are going to have choppy market being expiry. Yesterday I told if Nifty moves below 6047 we could go to 6032 and it did and I still feel we are going remain in same range as today happens to be expiry and no one will carry their position for too long till last hour. Suggest not avoid trading in Nifty till you see a compelling reason and Yesterday levels of trade below 6047 to 6032, 6017 and 6000 and above 6080 can go to 6095 and 6110 will remain valid for today also.

Must trades for the day
I am expecting Tata Motors,Axis Bank, Biocon, BPCL,Idea & JSWSteel to do well.  For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of Key Stocks and Index for the day

 

Broader outlook and Stocks for Nov 27th

Key benchmark indices edged lower in choppy trade, with selling intensifying towards the latter part of the trading session. Indian stocks yesterday gave away a portion of Monday's strong gains triggered by hopes that a price decline in oil. Nifty opened weak at 6099 and was in a range till 2 PM  and later drifted down to 6047 which is lowest of the day and ultimately closed just below the key support level of 6060 at 6059 and Nifty future closed on  at 6071 level.The market may remain volatile in the near future as traders willroll over positions in the futures & options (F&O) segment from the near month November 2013 series to December 2013 series. What is really looking bad is all the major indexes were trading either at all time high or at 52 week high, but we were failing to move up.

Shortterm Trend
Nifty lost half of its gains it has made on Monday and has closed at 6059 which is exactly below 6060. Please remember my comments in my previous that this rally could be shortlived one and it has happend and would still stay there will be more choppy trades and be you need to be agile to catch them. Nifty will become weak below 6040 and will be strong above 6161 which is ruled out. Last hope for Nifty is 5972 which is also looking to be difficlut to be breached in this expirty, but could test 6000 . I am still sticking to my word that Nifty will close below 6040 for this expiry which I stated on Monday when Nifty made a huge rally. I still feel short and medium term trend is down.

Intraday Trend
Nifty will open below yesterdays close and we will see lot of volatality today and suggest not to trade in the first session as we may not see direction, but you may find direction in second half of the day. One can buy nifty future above  6080 in spot for 6085 and 6000 and below 6047 which was yesterdays low we  could go to 6032,6017 and 6000.

Must trades for the day
I am expecting Auro Pharma, AdaniEnt, Lupin, BankIndia, LicHsg and Jindal Steel to do well.  For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of Key Stocks and Index for the day

 

Broader outlook and Stocks for Nov 26th

Trading for the week began on an upbeat note as key benchmark indices surged as crude oil prices dropped after the US and five other world powers agreed with Iran. Nifty opened at 6031 and has made a high of 6072 in first 15 mins. Nifty later retested 6058, but made a high of 6123 and ultimately closed at 6115 which is a again of 119. Have a look at the fall of past three trading days. It slipped from 6212 to 5792. Now in just one day it has covered 62% of the fall. Rupee became strong and was well below its resistance of 63. As ever Banking stocks along with cement have been biggest movers and has lead the market to higher levels. Most of the sectors have rallied except Pharma and IT which are major beneficiaries of weakening rupee.

Shortterm Trend
Though I mentioned that we will be making a pullback shortly, but I would be lying if said that you will see a big move of 120 points. I Said Nifty should trade above 6060 for a move to 6080 and 6100, infact it has happend twice though you may to be able to trade in Nifty in the first 30 mins, later in second session it made a low of 6058 and after consolidation has made a solid move to 6123 and ultimately closed 6115. For Nifty to be considered bullish it should cross 6161 to move to 6193,6210 and 6223 levels and in the downside below 6060 it could again go to 6035, 6000 and 5972 which is lower swing. I suggest you to be not be complacent as this pullback rally could be short lived with sudden move towards downside as we are approaching Expiry. I suggest to trade with trend without any bias and not suggest not to take any positions for the short term as expiry is approaching. VIX is back to its recent high 21.05 which is not a good indication. I am expecting Nifty to closebelow 6040 level for this expiry.

Intraday Trend
After all the euphoria we could open negative to flat as indicated and most of the markets are flat. Suggest to trade with caution as we may see volatility and suggest to with trend and look for small profits either side. I feel we could see cut in Nifty premium as we are approaching expiry and I prefer to trade towards downside as there no change in fundamental and technical as this is a momentum play. If nifty trades above 6120 for 15 minutes one can go long for a target of 6135 and 6150 on the lower side dip below 6095 and stay there for 15 minutes could see Nifty going down to 6080 and 6065.

Must trades for the day
Capital good could do well. I am expecting Cairn, RCom, Lupin, Auro Pharma and Bajaj Auto to do well.  For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of Key Stocks

 

Broader outlook and Stocks for Nov 25th

Nifty open with a gapup at 6027 and made a high of 6049 and the low it has made is 5972 which is very strong support area and has bounced back and closed at 5995 which is less 6000 for the second day. Nifty future made a low of 5983 and has closed at 6015. Cements have done better and ITC is one of the worst performings stock. Rupee closed stronger, but closing lower is concern. But the way it has bounced exactly at recent low can also be doubted as this seems to be a trap.


Shortterm Trend
Nifty is getting weaker day by day and as it has closed below 6000 for second day despite good opening and making a high just below 6050. Nifty should close above 6060 for a positive move towards 6080 and 6100. Nifty can be considered bullish only if it closes above 6160 which is a major resistance area and on the downside 5972 is a major support area and below it we could quickly see 5930 and the last hope is 5875. Nifty is looking extremely oversold and could bounce back from current levels if conditions support, but this bounce will be short lived and could see lower levels from current level. It was constantly making lower lows which is not a good indication. Fresh shorts can be created below 5972 for short term. Longs can only be considered above 6060 with strict SL of 6035 as we may see short covering. IT and Cement stocks are at good support levels and could bounce from current levels if support stands valid. India VIX has come down to 20 from 21 levels and below 20 is a good indication of a trend confirmation which is definetly downward bias as of now, but dont be surprised with a move as we may see volatality as expiry is very near.

Intraday Spot Level
Nifty could open strong with a gapup at 6020 For the Nifty can be bought above 6030 with SL of 6010 for 6045 and 6060 and can be shorted below 5995 if stays for 10 mins for 5980 and 5965. If Nifty moves below 5970 and stays there for few minutes we could see panic selling to levels of 5930. I am expected Nifty to do better today in longer side and IT and Cement sector can be considered for trading today.

Must trades for the day
  Please watch IT and Cement sector leader for today. I am expecting IndusInd Bank, Ambuja Cement, Lupin TataSteel and Adani Ent to do well.  For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.


Pivot levels of key stocks

Broader outlook for Nov 22nd

Key benchmark indices slumped after minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting signaled US stimulus may be reduced in coming months. Nifty settled at a tad below the psychological 6,000 mark, having swung alternately above and below that mark in late trade. Nifty was making lower lows through out the day after last pullback from its lows above the emotional level of 6000. Talking about Nifty open and high is of no use and I will avoid it. In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar which has added to fire. All the Nifty stocks traded in Red and it is second consecutive day of heavy selling. What should be noted is Dow closed highest ever above 16000.

Shortterm Trend
Nifty did its job of filling gaps formed in recent rally from 5972 to high of 6212 and all the gains have evoperated and it is again at square one. Nifty spot with thursday’s low of 5986 has not yet breached the critical 13th, Nov spot low of 5973, though Nifty future has breached its earlier swing low of 6009, but this is because of premium evoperation as we are near Expiry.  A close below 5973 spot will turn every one bearish to see  5920 and 5860-50 which is 200 DMA and are good supports and are last hope. If Nifty can protect its swing low of 5973 we could see consolidation at these levels and could see a small pullback towards higher side and will start its fall again. So, as of now short on rise is the best strategy till we see 6161 again which is unlikely soon, but long term trend is still intact. As I feel we are near to bottom for atleast few days it is better to be prepared for expiry as we may see lot volatility at these levels.

Intraday Level
Global cues are not bad and Nifty is expected to trade in a range and suggest shorters not to be complacent as we are approaching expiry.  Immediate trading support is psychological  6000 but if 5995 fails to hold for more than 10 minutes we could see Nifty drifting to 5980 and 5965, on the other side Nifty can be bought only above 6030 for 6045. Infact I prefer not to trade Nifty for today as we may see lot of whipsaws.


Must trades for the day
I can not take credit for yesterdays success in my picks because even my sons picks would have done extremely well :) .I am expecting IndusInd Bank, YesBank, Auro Pharma,JublFood and Lupin to do well.  For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.


Pivot levels of key stocks

Broader outlook for Nov 21st

It has been shocker and no one expected this sudden pullback of this magnitude, though I expected a small pullback to sub 6160 to be frank I never expected this slide which could be because of profit booking. Nifty opened at 6191 and made a high of 6203.5  and low 6109 and was in a range through out the day till 2.30 PM when suddenly hell broke and we have seen sudden crash in the market. Indian stocks dropped due to caution ahead of the release of the minutes from the US Federal Reserve's last meeting, possibly providing clues to the timing of its plan to slow monetary stimulus to the US economy and partly because of profit booking.  In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar on demand for greenbacks by state-run oil refiners and on weakness in domestic equities. We have seen decline in premium of Nifty futures which has come to 10 and where BankNifty futures which is the main culprit was trading at discount of 2. What has been visible is there is hardly any buying by FII's which is the main driving force for Nifty for its recent high from its low. See one days change in momentum has changed the trend of the market and you need to be very agile for all these changes with proper home work should trade.

Short term Trend
If we take Diwali high 6342 and recent low of 5972 on Nov, 13th as per Fib levels 38.2% retracement level is 6110 that is where Nifty took support and moved back to 6122, other way if we take Nov, 13th low of 5972 and Nov 11th High of 6212, Fib retracement level of 38.2% happens to be 6120 and nifty is now trading at this level and the next support level happens to be 6085 which is the last support area. As Long as Nifty is below 6155- 60 levels we are bearish and as indicated before Nifty failed to break the the 6240 level which is a medium term trend indicator and so we are still in medium term downtrend and if we close below 6085 we can also consider that we are in short term downtrend. I suggest not to go long till we get any convicing move from Nifty and instead should prefer to be in shorting side as I am expecting sub 6060 levels in next few days.  I Still feel we may see new all time highs after Dec 8th with expected news of election results which may favor BJP.

Intraday Tend
Yesterday Nifty future failed to cross 6240 which is major resistance for any up move and with the way premium coming down I am expected more downside for Nifty as expiry is coming close and I suggest not to take long till we see real trend. With Nifty expted to open weak sub to around 6100 levels we I suggest to short below 6100 levels for 6085, 6070 and 6060 after initial consolidation and you can only go long above 6140 which is unlikely only if it can trade for 15 mins.


Must Trades for the day
Yesterday all my pics have done very well partly because of  technical levels and also because of selling in  broader market. I am expecting Centuty Text, Tata Steel, IndusInd, BankIndia, Titan and LT to do well. The logic is when the market is bearish stock picking becomes easy where in you can sell stocks which have run a lot. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.


Pivot levels of key stocks

Broader out look for Nov 20th

Nifty opened at 6197 above yesterdays close and was in a range for most of the day. Made a low of 6184 and high was 6212.Nifty closed at 6203 with a gain of 14 points. Key data to be observerd is FIIs bought 1.15 lakhs of Nifty futures mostly longs and were short in puts. They were still buying in tons which is indication for further strength in the marekt but may see pull back before further move.

Shortterm Trend
Global market give us a sign of cooling off very sooner as even Dow has been in very narrow after reaching high which is expected. Asian market is trading soft this morning . It is important for Nifty to trade above 6193 for 6240 which is my short term target. Nifty closing above 6187 for second day is a good sign and it shows strength in market. If Nifty can trade above this level we could see 6250,6270 and 6290 and if Nifty moves below 6160 which is a strong support area we could see Nifty going to 6140, 6116 and 6100. Rupee getting stronger and key resistance area is 63.


Intraday Levels
Today Nifty could open weak below yesterdays close as we are seeing some cool off and Nifty could face intraday resistance at 6210 on the highere side and stay for 10 mins  above this for 15 mins is a clear buy, it failed to do so yesterday and could go to 6227 and 6240 and lower side if trades below 6170 we could see 6155 and 6140.

Must Trades for the day
Yesterday all my pics have done very well expect Asian Paints which did not move much but may move today. I am expecting Asian Paint, Zeel, HDFCBank, HCL Tech,Jubl Food and Auro Pharma to do well. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.


Pivot levels of key stocks 

 

Broader outlook for Nov 19th

As expected Nifty opened very strongly above 6130 and has consolidated and was in a range for most of the day, but made a solid from move from 2 PM and made a high of 6191 and so closed above key resistance of 6187. FIIs took full charge to make a stronger recovery as the bought more than 1000 crs. Just in two days of time, Nifty bounced by more than 200 points from its low of 5972.China has started it biggest reform of last more than two decades. This has triggered massive rally in Asian market yesterday. Whole Asia may gain from this but not India.

Short term trend
With strong cues from China, I am expecting more allocation to China than India and all this euphoria may end as we are getting closer to strong resistance of 6240 and close above this sets medium term trend and strong short term  and long term uptrend are intact. It is important for Nifty to trade above 6193 for 6230 which is my short term target and but was also expecting a small correction before that happens. Even if we have small correction we have good support at 6160 and 6135. The positive is Dollar getting weaker globally which is a good news for India.

Intraday Support
Nifty is expected to open flat based on Global cues and Dollar also supporting the market could set  the market. Nifty could face intraday resistance at 6210 and staying above this for 15 mins is a clear buy and could go to 6227 and 6240 and lower side if trades below 6172 we could see 6155 and 6140. I dont suggest selling even though we get levels  as buying comes at every low level. I suggest to look for smaller PSU banks for gains as we have seen rally in their bigger banks.

Must Trades for the day
I am expecting Asian Paint,Jubl Food,Jindal Steel, TechM and UCO Bank to do well. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of key stocks 

 

Broader outlook for the Week and Nov 18th

Week that was
Key benchmark indices edged lower on concerns the US Federal Reserve may reduce monetary stimulus for the world's largest economy sooner than expected. However, bourses cut losses on final trading session of holiday-truncated week after Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor, Raghuram Rajan evening Wednesday, 13 November 2013 dismissed worries about a return to market turmoil and rapid falls in the country's fragile currency. The 50-unit CNX Nifty regained the psychological 6,000 mark after sliding below that level amid high volatility during the week. The market dropped in three out of four trading sessions in the week. FIIs, the key driver of Indian markets, have purchased shares worth a net Rs 4002.20 crore in November 2013 so far (till 12 November 2013) and DII's were selling throughtout the week and they were selling more than FII's were buying, but things have changed again on Thursday with more FII buying than DII selling.

Weak Ahead
The market will closely watch the direction of the rupee and the investment activity of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) as we dont have major events this week both domestically and internationally .On the domestic front, the rupee is fast losing its fizz against the dollar. The currency has crossed the 63-mark against the US greenback. A weak rupee will hit companies with high imports and high foreign debt adversely. A weak rupee makes imports costlier. On the other hand, IT companies stand to benefit from the rupee's decline.

Short Term Trend
Nifty after it strong move on Nov 14th is on a short term uptrend, but need confirmation and  close above 6100 for some one to be long for short term trade  which is a strong resistance area for a could move to 6130, 6160, 6189 and 6215 with a SL of 6050 and on the lower level close below 6050 could lead to 6010, and 5975 again. I feel close above 6100 for two days is very key for strength in Nifty.

Intraday Levels
Huge gapup is expected by as indicated by global cues and we may open above 6110 which is again a difficult level to trade in Nifty. You may get chance at 6130 levels for either way but need to follow strict SL. If Nifty can sustain above 6130 we could see 6145, 6160 and lower side below 6105 we could see 6090 and 6085. In stocks you will get some chances in Banks, Auto and Capital Goods.

Must Trades for the day
Yesterday my must trades did very well and I am expecting Dabur,RelInfra, CESC, AuroPharma, and LIC Hsg to do well either way. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.


Pivot levels of key stocks

 

Broader outlook for Nov 14th

Same story repeated everyday we opened lower, but later Nifty seems to have found it support at 6010 and has made a high of 6042, but suddenly we have seen reverse after making high as ever in after session and made a low of 5974, but closed again above the support area. This confirms we are in medium term down trend and we may see lows  of 5900 after a small pullback which still did not
happen. Perhaps after 8 days we have seen DII's selling less.

Trend of the Market
The key levels to be watched on closing bases are 5960-70 and below it we may see 5940 and 5920 which are last hope and on the higher side above 6000 we could 6030and 6050 for short term. If Nifty closes below 6000 for second day we could see it going to 5900 and 5850 and close above 6045 for two days will change the trend for short term and we could head to 6110 and 6150.But we may not sustain at higher levels if we see rupee weakening. As I told you key for the market is VIX should stay below 21 and if does we could recover if not more pain is expected.

Intraday Trend
Nifty is expected to open with gapup because of some good news of possibilities of delayed tapering withdrawal and also technically it is bound to do that. For the day Nifty Spot can bought above 6010 for 6025, 6040 and 6055 and lower side below 5975 we could see 5957, 5940 and 5925. Suggest to trade in Banks for today.

Must Trades for the day
Yesterday my must trades did very well and I am expecting TataSteel, Idea,Adani Ent kand Axis Bank to do well either way. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of key stocks

Broader outlook for Nov 13th

Yesterday I was expecting some support as it is at key support area of 6075 area, but after decent openining Nifty was not able to sustain levels and went below the key support area  6075-80 levels which  is the last hope and it met my target of 6020 levels which is again a good support area.FIIs are silent and DII have sold heavily and this is the 8th from its recent high of 6348.Indian VIX is near to 21 which is a not a good news.


Trend of the Market
Infact we are at a very good support area which could be a trend reversal for the market as it will set the medium trend of the market a stated in my previous blog, but With more bad news because of bad IIP and CPI data, I am expecting more pain as we could open lower and next support area is 5960 - 70 levels.  Earlier all these bad news were ignored in uptrend. If Nifty was not able to take support at this area we could see further downside to 5920 area. But if Nifty reaches this level I am positional buyer as I dont see any more downside and is a very strong support area.

Intraday Trend
Nifty is expected to open down as indicated because of bad news and also dollar getting stronger for today Nifty below 6000 we could see 5985, 5970, 5955 and on the upside above 6030 we could see 6045, 6065 and 6080. But be prepared for bounce back from lows and suggest to trade with caution.

Must Trades for the day
Yesterday my must trades did very well and I am expecting DLF, LT, Canara Bank and IndusInd Bank to do well either way. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of key stocks

Broader outlook for Nov 12th

The day that was yesterday
DII has actively sold this market while FII has reduced their buying intensity. Indian market has turned nervous in the fear of rollover of QE sooner than expected as US data has seen remarkable improvement. This is turning a reason for weakness in Indian rupee too. Yesterday Nifty opened gap down to 6100 levels and was in this range till 12 PM and started it up move towards key resistance area 6140 and has reversed and triggered my sell at 6121 as stated in my previous post and closed at 6080 which is my target.

Trend of the Market
Nifty was still drifting down and is now at key support area at 6075-80 levels and it is the last hope. If this breaks we may see levels of 6020 levels which is 50 day EMA. I see 6010 - 6020 as strong support and below this level we can see we are in medium bear market from short term bear market.

Intraday Levels
Technical support of 6080 has already broken in a soft way. I am not optimistic for today. A dip is likely to come.  I like to see if come sign of revival come during trading session, else prepare to see levels of 6010 levels. Below 6068 in Spot we could see Nifty going tp 6050 and 6035 and on the higher side above 6100 we could see 6113 and 6124.

Must trades for the Day

Yesterday my must trades did very well and I am expecting DLF, Lupin, Zeel and Jindal Steel to do well either way. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.


Pivot Levels for some of the stocks which could be traded 

Weekly and day outlook for Nov 11th

Week that was
This week on Muhurut trading we made a 6342 and started drifting down from that day and made a low of 6121 on this Friday, but closed above 6140 which is a key support area. What we have seen whole of this week is close above support levels by end of the day everyday, but the market started moving down further for whole of week which is loss of nearly 200 point from its high partly because of profit booking, expected withdrawl of stimulus from March and strengthing of
Dollar over othe currencies.

Trend of the Market.
Nifty is in short term downtrend as it has closed below 20 day EMA which is 6160 since 2 months, but above 50 day EMA 6015 which sets Medium term trend and 200 dma EMA of 5835. BankNifty which has gained lot strength lost week and started outperforming has also moved below 20 day EMA and is looking very weak now. Below 6020 I am confident we will start a fresh bearish market for medium terma nd below 5800 the long term will also turn negative.

Weekly Outlook
What could set trend in rupee progresses next week, if we continue to move lower and it restarts its weakening trend then you can be sure that sooner or later equity markets will also follow it down. So as far as I am concerned a clear sell signal has emerged, now it is a tactical question that from 6080-6100 we have a bit of a pullback may be to about 6210-6240 which is again a strong resistance, but Nifty should cross 6181 to move this level and from there the final round of selling comes in and the top is in place. So the import levels to watch out for next week is 6080 which is a strong support area and next support is 6040 which are not easy to be breached as it is also a good Fibonacii retacement support level, if it breaks 5980 is next support. and higher side above 6181 we could see 6200 and 6240 levels again. IT,Pharma will do well and banking could underperform

Intraday Levels
Intraday levels to be wathched are below 6121 we could see 6104, 6093 and 6080 and on the higher side above 6141 for 30 mins we could see 6160, 6180 and 6193. The most critical zone is 6142 and 6157 which is no trade zone. I am expecting consolidation today and we may not see big move in the market. Watch IT and Pharma stocks for upside. I am expecting bounce from this area which could be a shortlived one. We could see Nifty opening lower as indicated by SGXNifty.

Must trades for the Day

Adani Enterprises, TechM and Cipla are looking good and should be traded after first 15 - 20 mins when market settles.

Pivot Levels for some of the stocks

For exact levels to trade above securities contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com

Away for today

Hi, I won't  be able to post my comments and stocks for the day for Nov 8th as I was busy because of some family commitments and will start posting from Nov 11th.

Broader outlook for Nov 7th

Weakness prevailed on the bourses for the second consecutive session today, 6 November 2013. A decision by State Bank of India (SBI), to raise lending rates by 20 basis points hurt investor sentiment adversely as borrowing costs will rise for the corporate sector. Fed's bond-buying program has been a source of liquidity for most Asian and emerging markets this year. IT stocks gained after US based IT services firm Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp,  raised its full-year forecast for both profit and revenue at the time of announcing its Q3 September 2013 results on Tuesday.

We are seeing more strong negative cues as FII's have decreased buying and DII are selling more which is the biggest factor for the market to come below key support level of 6240 level. I was expecting Nifty to close above 6240, but it did not happen and infact closed very weak and the next support area is 6180 which is very strong as it is 61.8% retrenchment levels and below this we could go back to 6140 levels which is a very strong area and on the higher level if Nifty can trade above 6240 for 30 mins we could see it going to 6280 as next resistance. The short, Medium and long term up trend is still intact till it breaks key support levels, but for very short term we are weak.

For the day Nifty could open flat to bit negative and it is key it should not go below 6210and trading below this levels for 15 - 30 mins and we could see nifty going down to 6195 and 6180 and above 6135 for 15 mins we could see it going up to 6250 and 6260. IT,FMCG and Pharma could so well and Banking may continue to underperfom for the day.

Pivot Levels for stocks of the day

For exact levels to trade above securities contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com

Away for today

Hi Everyone I won't  be able to post my comments and stocks for the day for Nov 6th as I was busy and will continue to post my comments from Nov 7th onwards.

Broader outlook for Nov 5th

Trend in investment by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) who are currently on a buying spree, trend in other global emerging markets, rupee movement and movement in crude oil prices will determine near term on the domestic bourses. FIIs purchased shares worth a net Rs 15706.20 crore in October 2013 and DII's were still selling. We have seen negligable participation by retails which is biggest concern.

Nifty has closed at highest ever level of 6317 which is more important than going to alltime high, but 6350 is a major resistance area and if it can close above this level the next level to look after is 6400 which many experts were talking would be reached this week. I expect traders to be cautious and trade with strict stop losses as we have seen a very strong resistance at at all time highs and we may see a pull back to down side and could make a fresh up move.

The Key is BankNifty which has done well last week and if it can support the broader market there will be no problem for Nifty to reach 6400 levels. Look for more opportunities in Banking, Pharma and Cement which is most underperformed sector, but could do well in short to medium term.

Intraday Levels
We could open flat and I am not expecting any big move today as there are hardly any cues. Nifty spot below 6300 could go to 6280 - 6260 and above 6325 it can go to 6345 and 6365. For above levels Nifty should trade for atleast 15 mins to reach stated levels. I am expected market to be in downside as we may see profit booking at higher levels.


Pivot Levels for stocks of the day

For exact levels to trade above securities contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com

Wish you all a Very Happy Diwali

What a year it has been and is a perfect climax where we ended with Sensex reaching at all time high and people are talking about Nifty reaching 6400 and higher shortly. We were at  5600 level last Diwali and we made a low of  5100 two months back and we are now at all time high. What has led market is FII's money which is coming in ton's and may continue to do for some more time.

India on macro and micro level has passed through tough times with increase in CAD because of higher Oil, Gold imports and worst of all currency depreciation to alarming levels. Fortunately because of measures of Govt on Gold Imports and settling of rupee we are expecting better than expected CAD which is a great news.

As we have elections next year we which is key and with cues coming from surveys hinting BJP coming to power and also we have state elections in some states in North which could give a indication on political scenario could help the market to go to levels of 6700 and above levels in medium term. With indication of economy bottoming we are expected to see bouncing in economy partly supported by good monsoon which could see rural spending increasing and also because of measures by RBI if inflation was tamed things are looking rosy.

On the darker side what we have seen is this rally is driven only by FII's money and with DII's not participating as we have negligible retail participation and if see US withdrawing stimulus which could happen in next 6 months, market can react violently if  FIIs pullback, and things did not improve domestically we may see market going down very fast.

Let us hope for better and look for sectors and stocks that could do well. Banking and Auto sector with rural focus could be the sectors to watch out for next year as these sectors are the ones which are going to be benefited if we see improvement in economy, IT and Pharma though we have seen rich valuations they should continue to do well with improvement of global economies. Reality and Infra is avoid till we see clear signs as these companies are extremely leveraged with debt and may not do well in next one year except some companies which has better governance and assets.

Keep posted for some stocks  Ideas for next year

Broader outlook for Nov 1st

Nifty made a fresh 52 week high at 6309 and is approaching key 6337 level despite most of the global markets remaining weak yesterday. I am sure every time Nifty touched new high we have seen selloff and expecting this to happen this time also atleast for intraday or for next few days. What we have seen is buying in PSU banks after BOB and Bank of India's results.

Intraday Levels
We may open flat, but as optimism is growing and there is no possibility of any negative trigger. So, we can expect rise for new all-time high now near Muhurat trading and could happen on Diwali.Nifty is looking good above 6310 for 6223, 6339, 6360 and below 6281 it could go down to 6269, 6254 and 6235. Banking, Metals and Cement can be the sectors to concentrate on for traders today.

Pivot Levels for stocks of the day

For exact levels to trade above securities contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com