Broader outlook and stocks to watch for Dec 31, 2013

Nifty opened on Monday at 6340 which is better than expected which is its high and has become very weak and started moving down.Most of the day it was moving and lost nearly 70 points amde a low of 6273 from its top and close at 6291. Banking and autos are very weak. Volumes have dried out with no involvement of major investors. Good news is VIX is near 15 which can set some movement in the market. Shortterm Trend Nifty is trading  below 6300 which is immediate resistance, but for it to make  a move higher levels it should close above 6320 levels for 6350 and 6400 which at key resistances for a move to  all time highs and below 6260 which is acting as strong support we could reach 6200 and 6160 with in no time. The trend is definitely up and we may see it getting stronger may be towards end of this weak as indicated also by VIX. Let us see where we will close today and I want it to close above 6330 which is highest yearly closing. We have closed at 5905 last year on Dec 31st, 2012. Intraday Trend Nifty could open higher as indicated most probably above 6300 as indicated by global cues and news flow, but may not sustain for too long. Nifty above 6320, we could see 6335 and 6350 and on the downside below 6300  we could go to 6285 and 6270. Top picks for the day My top pics for the day are Asian Paints, Bajaj Auto, DLF, BHEL and JindalSteel. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com. Pivot levels of  key stocks

Borader outlook for Dec 30th

Nifty opened on Friday at 6292 which is better than expected and made high of 6324 and ultimately closed at 6216 which is a good close. Volumes were low and FII participation is limited. VIX is at 14 which is surprising me.

Shortterm Trend
Nifty did well by openig good opening on first day of new series. Nifty is trading above 6300 and closed below 6320 levels and trading above these levels will move Nifty towards 6350 and 6400  as the key is Nifty should inch up for all time highs and below 6260 which is acting as strong support we could reach 6200 and 6160.  For next few weeks I am bullish but we are breaking out for new high and will happen shortly and I prefer to trade long side.

Intraday TrendNifty could open flat as indicated by global cues and above  6320, we could see 6335 and 6350 and on the downside below 6300  we could go to 6285 and 6270. I am not expecting big move in next few days as market participants will take fresh look in new year. Keep a eye on Cement and FMCG sector for good gains.

Top picks for the day
My top pics for the day are YesBank, DRreddy, Bajaj Auto, HPCL and ICICIBank. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of  key stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Dec, 27th

Nifty made small gains after witnessing immense volatility during the last one hour of the trading session as traders rolled over positions in the F&O segment from the near month December 2013 series to January 2014 series. I think we need really discuss much about yesterdays trade as it is expiry day and by end of the day Nifty closed at 6278 after making a high og 6302. FII's were buyers yesterday and it has helped the market a bit. VIX has comed down to 14 levels which is 8 month which indicates not much is expected by market.

Shortterm Trend
We had a positive close for this expiry with 3% gains in Nifty on month on month basis. Nifty was facing resistance between 6300 and 6320 levels and trading above these levels will move Nifty towards 6400 and below 6260 which is acting as strong suppor we could reach 6200 and 6160.

Intraday Levels
Nifty could open weak as indicated by global cues and above 6285 we could go to 6300 and 6315 and on the downside below 6260  we could go to 6245 and 6230. Don't expect too much action today being last of vacation week as most of the players will be on leave and also first day of new expiry.

Top picks for the day
My top pics for the day are ICICIBank, JindalSteel, Syndicate,  Tata Global and HCL Tech for Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of  key stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Dec, 26th

Nifty edged lower, snapping their two-day winning streak even The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was positive. on Tuesday Nifty opened above Mondays close and was trading in a range but slided later because of not much activity by market particepents but closed at 6268. FII's were not participating much because of holiday and we may see some action after expiry

Shortterm Trend
Nifty was closing below 6280 and is bit weak and I dont read much into it as we are towards expiry and holidays. The key is Nifty should trade above 6280 for 6345 and 6400. The key is Nifty should cross 6350 again convincingly to move all time highs which is not looking likely very shortly. In the lower side 6160 is key to be watched to move to 6080 and 6000 levels.

Intraday
Nify will remain range bound and expect not much movement being expiry day. Suggest to trade with caution or avoid trading Nifty today and instead look for pockets in stocks which will give better chances. Nifty above 6285 can go to 6300 and 6315 and below 6260 we could reach 6245 and 6230.

Top picks for the day
My top pics for the day are Bajaj Auto, Hindalco, Relcap and Canbank. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of  key stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Dec, 24th

Nifty opened just below previous days close and made a high of 6317, but ultimately closed at 6282 which is just above previous days close. We ave seen volatality in last one hour and it seems it was facing resistance at 6300 levels whole day. FII's were silent probably because they have done their shopping last week as they will be in holiday.


Shortterm Trend
Nifty closing 6280 is a good sign even though we are not seeing strength in Nifty to move above previous highs in few days, but we cannot rule out it getting past highs. There is no convincing indication for Nifty to go to higher levels and it may trade with volatality as we are near expiry. I am sticking to what I said yesterday that as long as we are above 6280 we could see levels of 6340 and 6400 and below 6260, 6200 and 6160 is very much possibility.

Intraday Trend
Nifty could open with positive bias and as long as it trades above 6290  we could see levels of 6305, 6320 and 6335 and below 6260 we could see 6245 and 6230. Suggest to trade in high beta stocks especially Banking sector which will give good results. Yesterday we have almost all met 6320 which is our second target.


Top picks for the day
My top pics for the day are TechM, Maruti, Lupin, Auro Pharma and Asian Paint. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot Levels for Indices and key stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Dec, 23th

Heavy FII buying coming a day after the US Federal Reserve's decision to gradually reduce monetary stimulus for the US economy, helped the market shrug off fears of slowdown in foreign inflows. Nifty opened at 6181 and made a steady progress after consolidation and made a high of 6284 and closed at 6274 which is a very good close. IT sector started hitting all time highs again and rate senstivies Banking and reality has also done very well. FII's were buying heavily everday and it is clear bullish sign and it is a Santa rally.

Shortterm Trend
Not many events are lineup this week, US and other major markets will be on holiday on eve of Christmas. Nifty is above 6240 which is a key resistanace and just below 6280 which is next resitance and if this was crosed we could see levels of 6340 and 6400 and below 6240, 6200 and 6160 is very much possibility. I feel we should watch 50 DMA very closely every time market has come down and is near this key support area

Intraday Trend
Nifty could open with positive bias and as long as it trades above 6290 for for 15 mins we could see levels of 6305, 6320 and 6335 and below 6260 we could see 6245 and 6230. Suggest to trade in high beta stocks especially Banking sector which will give good results.

Top picks for the day.
My top pics for the day are MCDowell, IndusInd, DrReddy, M&M and JublFood. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of key Indices and Stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Dec, 20th

Nifty opened gap-up above 6253 level, but huge profit booking saw the index hurtling down towards the lows of the day around 6150 within the first 45 minutes of trade. The index tried to move up but closed just above the day’s low at 6166.65, a huge loss of 50.50 points. The broader market was also weak, with 593 advances to 725 declines.The reduced availability of cash in the global financial system could temper the flow of foreign money into India, which has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of foreign capital and which is the sole drivibg force for the market. What is really surprising FII's have bought heavily yesteraday to the tune of 2200 crores and where as DII's sold only 41 crores. We have also seen VIX below 17 which is confirmation of clear one side trend which could be downside.

Shortterm Trend
Nifty took a U turn after all the euphoria and is very near to 6150 and is acting as very strong support zone. Nifty has been constantly knocking 6145 - 60 leveles and we could see it breaking as we are also approaching expiry. If this was breached we could see 6080, 6040 and 5972 and on the higher side above only 6240 we could see it going to 6280 and 6345. Concern is BankNifty is below 200 DMA and is very negative to market.

Intraday Trend
We are expected to open flat and we may see market settling and trade in a range but  is negative bias. Nifty is strong only above above 6180 and trade for 15 mins we could see 6195 and 6210 and on the downside below 6145 we could see lot of selling pressure and we could see 6130, 6115 and 6000. Gas price revision is positive for Reliance and negative for power generation and fertiliser industries

Top picks for the day.
 My top pics for the day are MCDowell, Canbank, ICICI Bank, Biocon, TechM and Maruti. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of key Indices and Stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Dec, 19th

Major Indices snapped their six day losing streak as RBI surprised markets by keeping the repo rate unchanged at 7.75% after mid-quarter monetary policy review. It was widely expected that the RBI will raise repo rate by 25 basis points to rein in inflation after recent data showed that both consumer prices and wholesale prices accelerated last month.Nifty opened at 6130 and was in a range till 11 AM and suddenly made a huge move to 6236 and later settled in a range through out the day around 6205 - 6220 levels. What is important is it has closed at high of 6230.

Shortterm Trend
Nifty can be considered bullish again if it trades above 6240 and major resistance area of 6280 for a move to previous highs of 6400 and on the lower side if it breaches 6150we could go to 6080 and 6000 in short term. Lot depends on the reaction of tappering decision of US Fed to cut to 75 billion from 85 billion and most of the markets have taken it as positive. If we close above 6280 we are again in a short term bull market. The real trend will be known only may be from tomorrow once everything settles

Intraday Trend.
Nifty should open with a gapup of atleast 40 points which is below 6280 which is major resistance. What is important is if we can trade above 6280 for 15 mins we could go to 6295 and 6310 and on the downside below 6280 for 15 we could go to 6265, 6250 and 6235.

Top picks for the day.
My top pics for the day are Jubilant Foods, Axis Bank, Infy, Lupin and Zeel. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of key Indices and Stocks
 

Broader outlook and levels for Dec, 18th

Nifty reversed direction after holding positive zone till afternoon trade as European stocks dropped and is trading below major support zone of 6145 after it seemed it was able to hold the level. Though FII's were buyers and negligible participation by DII's which is logical and waiting for vital events of next few days. Nifty opened at 6178 and made a high of 6190, but never stayed that level and has started it slide in the second session and made a low of 6133 and closed at 6137 which is not good for market.

Shortterm Trend
Nifty has broken 50 DMA and closed below the support of 6150-6145 levels and Closing below is major phsycoligical blow to bulls. Logically we should have a bounce at support zone but it was falling continuously. Now, we came on RBI policy today. It was definitely not a strong close yesterday. I am scared that Nifty spot may try to test the levels of 6080 now. Big question is that will we get support even at 6080. Suppose if it breaks 6080 and sustain then it will open flood doors for 6000. 25 basis point is discounted and dont see Rangarjan going anything drastic as I feel inflation is because of food items and anything worse will be taken by market with pinch of salt. I feel major event is Fed decision which could impact the market more.

Intraday Trend
Yesterday I stated in Intaday section "Nifty will opening with gapup is difficult to sustain and eventually be covered today are tomorrow" which has happened. We will open flat today and I suggest not to trade today till the event is out and better trade in second half once the market settles. Nifty is good if it stays above 6145 for 6160, 6175 and 6190 which is yesterdays high and on the lower side below 6120 we could see 6105, 6090 and 6075.



Top picks for the day.
My top pics for the day are  Zeel, Lupin, Can bank, IndusInd and Bharat Forge. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of key Indices and Stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Dec, 17th

Nifty closed 5th consecutive on lower side and is looking very weak despite making a non convincing move to 6180 levels. Nifty opened at 6173 and made a high of 6183 and low of 6146 which is 50 DMA and has closed at above key support area 6153. The latest data showed acceleration of inflation based on the wholesale price index  WPI to a 14-month high of 7.52% in November which is worse from bad. Coming back to today's trade, IT stocks rose on renewed buying and other sectors were under performers. FII's were net sellers which is not a good news for bulls.

Shorterm Trend
Nifty is very weak and news is not helping it. Nifty has 50 DMA at 6145 and breaking it could bring more pain as we could head towards 6040 and 5972 and on the higher side we need to cross 6240 convincingly to go back to previous highs which is unlikely in short term and we need a very positive news for this to happen. We may not see it breaking 6145 immediately but would happen eventually. Market is technically oversold and we may see small pullback,  but is difficult to sustain at this level and expect more pain.

Intraday Levels
Nifty will opening with gapup is difficult to sustain and eventually be covered today are tomorrow. Yesterday I clearly stated that 6145 is strong support and it took support. Nifty is buy above 6180 for 6195 and 6200 and on the other side below 6160 we could see 6145 and 6130. Strictly follow levels as there every chance of market coming back to support zones after initial euphoria.

Top picks for the day.
My top pics for the day are  Tata Motors,Adani Ent, TCS, MC-Dowell and ICICI Bank. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of key Indices and Stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Dec, 16th

Nifty dropped in choppy trade as a sharp uptick in consumer price inflation in Novemberraised the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiking its repo rate next week.Indian stocks dropped for the fourth-day in a row on Friday led by banks as it is interest sensitive sector.Nifty opened lower at 6200 and has never recovered and has made a low of 6163, but ultimately closed a t 6173 after taking support near 6160.

Short term Trend
Lot of events are linedup next week starting with Corporate advance tax payment for Q3 closing on Dec, 15th, RBI mid quarter review, US fed Meeting on Dec 18th and could set change or set new trend for shorting. On Friday I specified that we are heading down towards 6160 which is very near now. Breaking 6150 - 6140 could bring more pain as we could head towards 6040 and 5972 and on the higher side we need to cross 6240 convincingly to go back to previous highs. If tapering expected to start very soon we could see lower levels we are in a short term bear market as bears were dominating.


Intraday
Nifty will open flat and is bias is negative and if Nifty can stay above 6165 for 15 mins we could see 6180and 6195 and on the lower side, if Nifty breaks 6150 we could 6135, 6120. See a good support at 6145 levels

Top picks for the day.
My top pics for the day are Sun TV, Tata Motors, Wipro, Auro Pharma and Axis Bank. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

 Pivot levels of Key stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Dec, 13th

Nifty is weak today opening well below 6300 and below 6280 it made sharp 25 point and never recovered and most import is it closed at lowest level of the day below key support area 6240 at 6230. It was solid bearish rally and we are now in a short term downtrend. What we have seen yesterday is very bad FII buying which is the only buying force behing market.  The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was negative. In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar.

Shortterm Trend
I am expecting bearishness to continue as we are below the key support level of 6240 and is heading towards 6160 in short term as data in India is not supporting market and is very bad. I see Nifty going to lower levels if we go below 6160 to 6040 and 5972 and on the higher side above 6280 we could go to 6340.  IIP contracted to -1.8 percent in October, CPI has touched an astounding 11.24 percent mark in November which is horrible and The poor data leaves no room for any doubt that Reserve Bank (RBI) will raise key rates next week. Banks and key interest rate sensitive sectors will under perform and will give good oppurtnities for shorters.

Intraday Levels
Nifty will open weak atleast below 6190.Nifty can be bought only above 6240 and I feel it is a solid sell once market settles below 6190 for 6175, 6160 and 6145, if you get levels or else can sell at every rise in the market. Keep a eye on banking stocks for shorts.

Top picks for the day.
My top pics for the day are Sun TV, SSLT,  Axis Bank, Adani Ent and BOB. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of Key stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Dec, 12th

Nifty edged lower as hawkish comments on inflation from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan triggered speculation that there will be raise in repo rate policy review next week. Indian stocks fell for the second day in a row today. Nifty opened at 6307, but drifted to low of 6280 and later made a high of 6326 in the last 15 minutes and closed at 6322 which is better than expected. As expected by me Nifty found support at 6280. Even though FII's were buyers, DII's were equal sellers.

Short term Trend
Nifty has covers most of the gapup it has created on Monday by reaching low of 6280 which is good. I am repeating Nifty should cross 6415, which happens to be immediate resistance to make a move to 6500 and lower side below for the short term 6280 has acted as support on Wednesday and 6240 is major support and breaching them would create panic in the market and we could see 6160 and 6000 for short term. India VIX is doing well by reaching to levels of 17.5. I am sure we may see levels of 6100 very shortly, seeing the forthcoming events .

Intraday trend
Nifty is weak yesterday and made a recovery towards end of the day and expect my yesterdays levels will stand today also. Nifty is expected to open soft and we may see it opening at sub to near 6300 levels and below 6300  we could see it going to 6280, 6260 and 6245 and on higher side above 6340 we could see it going to 6355 and 6370. I continue to be bearish on  Banking and Capital goods and the other side expecting upside in IT, Pharma and FMCG which are defensive. I am seller in this market till 6140.

Top picks for the day.
My top pics for the day are Wipro,JublFood, Auro Pharma, Infy, RCOM and Ceat. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of Key stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Dec, 11th

Nifty as expected opened flat just below yesterdays close and made low of 6307 and ultimately closed at 6332 which is below support area. As predicted by me after going below 6345 Nifty spot reached my target of 6315 and later recovered from its low. What we have observed was DII's sold more than what FII's have bought which moved the market down. With tappering expected start very shortly markets worldwide could see some downside.

Short term Trend
Nifty seems to be in profit booking mode and has coverd nearly 75% of the gapup it has created on Monday. Nifty should cross 6415 which happens to be immediate resitance to make a move to 6500 and lower side below for the short term 6280 is next support and 6240 is major support and breaching them would create panic in the market and we could see 6160 and 6000 for short term. What is really heartning is VIX at  18 which is good for the market. I am expecting downward bias in Nifty for next few days as market is looking to cover the gap it has created and some of the indicators were indicating negative diverence.

Intraday Trend
Nifty is expected to open soft and we may see it opening at 6300 - 6310 levels and below 6300 for 10 minutes we could see it going to 6285 and 6270 and on higher side above 6340 we could see it going to 6355 and 6370. I am expecting Banking and Capital goods to correct as we have seen these stocks run a lot in last one week and the other side expecting upside in IT and FMCG which are defensive.

Top picks for the day.
All my stocks have done extremely well on Tuesday compared to Monday because we have seen gapup on Monday. My top pics for the day are RelInfra,AuroPharma, HUL, TCS and Axis. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of Key stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Dec, 10th

Nifty made a huge rally on Monday based on BJP's thumping win in three states and FII's have pumped in 2400 crores, DII's were sellers of 1200 crores and Nifty opened above 6400 and made a high of 6415 which happens to be highest for the day and closed at 6363 which is above highest ever close for Nifty. We have seen huge delivery based buying in most of the Nifty heavies except Jindal Steel.

Shorterm Trend
Nifty has confirmed all Short, Medium and long term term uptrend and Nifty seems to be heading towards 6700 which may happen in next 2 -3 months as I have pointed before as per my head and shoulder formation in Nifty when it has recovered from its low of 5100 two and half months back. Nifty should cross 6415 which happens to be imediate resitance to make a move to 6500 and lower side below 6240 we could see 6160 and 6000 for short term. We have also seen India VIX coming to 19 levels which is very good and at 18 we could see more buying in market.

Intraday
We could have decent opening above yesterdays close and for the day Nifty above 6375 could move Nifty to 6390, 6405 and  6420 and lower side Nifty below 6345 could go to 6330 and 6315. I would not trade in Nifty for today and may be tomorrow, but would prefer to trade in stocks where I see good opportunities.


Stocks for the day
Top pics for the day are  ICICIBank, Hindalco, Divis, HCLTech and DLF.  For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of Key stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Dec, 9th

Market opened lower and made a move to 6268 and later cooled and was in a range most of the day. Nifty closed at 6272 after making high of 6275. Not a good day for trading. We have seen buying in couple of sectors, but not a solid indication. Strongest growth is see in power genaration companies led by Tata power. Overall we have seen very good move in the market this week with net addition of 100 point for Nifty this week after exit poll results have indicated BJP winning 3 states.

Short term trend and events to be watched
Expecting high volatility this week as market will react to election results with BJP doing well and also we have IIP data coming in Dec, 12(Thursday). U.S. unemployment rate hits a 5 year low of 7% from 7.3% to 200k jobs and this indicates Fed will start to taper within the next 2 months. US economy is growing faster than expected. Indian market will react to all these and we may see high of 6400 on higher side and 6100 lower side. I feel Nifty should stay above 6240 to consider it as bullish which could take it to 6420 but sustaining at this level is not easy as reality will creep in and lower side below 6160 we could see Nifty going back to its recent lows of 6100 and 6040 this week.  It is not easy for Nifty to stay at it high for too long.

Intraday Trend
With BJP doing well in all 4 states though in Delhi it is short of majority we will see huge gapup of 110 - 140 points which will help it to reach all time high. I suggest not to trade Nifty today as market will be overheated.  You need to be careful as we may also profit booking later in the day. Suggest to trade in stocks instead.

Stocks for the day
Top pics for the day are  Relinfra, AdaniEnt, Jublfood, IDFC and SBIN.  For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of Key stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Dec 6th

Market made massive rally after exit polls predicted a strong showing for the BJP in the recently concluded assembly elections in four states Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi. FII have bought 1151 crores and DII were sellers as ever. Nifty opened at 6262 which is exactly 100 points up from previous days close and made a high of 6300 and slowly started drifting down from 11 AM giving half of the gains and made a low of 6232 and ultimately closed at 6240. Banking shares were stars of the day with most of private sectors stocks making a move of 5 - 6% and PSU banks have also done well. India VIX has come down to 21.6 which is positive, but still above comfort zone.


ShortTerm Trend
As ever Nifty has been closing at support levels as it did before since last three weeks. Nifty closing at important support area of 6240 is again could be again after losing 60 points from its top. As of now we are in a short and long term uptrend. We need to close above 6340 to consider that we are in medium uptrend and below 6140  confirms short term down trend. With US also coming with key data by EOD and elections results being announced on Sunday, I am expecting a clear trend in market from Monday for short term.


Intraday
Expect Nifty to open flat and may trade in a range. Expecting a choppy trade today. The key levels to be watched for today is 6227 which if breached and will continue to stay below for 15 minutes it would move Nifty to 6210 and 6197 levels and on the higher Nifty should stay above 6260 for 6275 and 6290. Not a good day to trade in Nifty.

Top pics for the day
Most of my yesterday picks opened with huge gap up and so it is no trade int them and I can take credit for my pics except HUL sell in strong market and JublFood. I am expecting Maruti, Auro Pharma, CoalIndia, SBIN and RelInfrato do well.  For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot Levels of Index and key Stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Dec 5th

Yesterday Nifty closed lower for second consecutive day at 6160 which is a strong support, look at the way Nifty was stopping at every major support area since last 45 days. Nifty opened better than expected and made a high of 6210 which is a strong resistance and has reversed after making high and made a low of 6149, but ultimately closed at 6160.The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was negative most of the day despite some midcaps making highs. It was lackluster day with less volumes in the market.

Shortterm Trend
As stated before Nifty was facing resistance at 6212 and 6228 for making a move to 6240 which happens to be next major resistance. Nifty should cross 6240 for making higher levels of 6290 and 6340.  If Nifty goes below 6140 there is strong chance for us to go to 6040 and 5972 levels. India VIX has come down to 23.6 which is better, but still above comfort zone.  Exit poll suggests that market favourite BJP has gained significant edge in almost four states. Three states are clearly in favour of BJP. We may see big gapup in Nifty above resistance levels. I strongly feel this exuberance may not long last once reality creeps into our market once elections results settles as US was seeing continuous good results.

Intraday
If Nifty opens with huge gapup as indicated above 6228 we could go to 6240 and 6260 and lower side below 6207 we could see 6190 and 6175. With local events supporting we are going to see huge gapup, even though data from US recovery is good, which is bad for India and other emerging countries.

Top pics for the day
As ever our picks are rocking and expect the same in future. I am expecting Axis Bank, Jubilant Food, Adani Ent, Dish TV, HUL(Sell)and HDFC Bankto do well.  For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of some key Index and Stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Dec, 4th

Nifty went lower yesterday when compared to previous day as Asian and European stocks dropped on speculation the Federal Reserve will soon start tapering monetary stimulus to the US economy.As expected Nifty opened weak at 6204 and made a high of 6225 in first 2 hours of the market, but later drifted down and made a low of 6191 which happens to be lowest it has reached and closed just above sentimental value of 6200. DII's were selling more than FII buying and not a great day  to for trading in Nifty, but has given enough opportunities for trading in Stocks. Crude is near to 98 from 92 levels and above 98 we could see it going up again, but is unlikely in near term.

Shortterm Trend
As stated before Nifty was facing resistance at 6227 for making a move to 6240 which happens to be next major resistance. Above 6240 we could go to 6290 and 6342 and on the downside 6161 - 6141 are strong support areas. If we close below 6140 level we invite bears. Yesterdays weak closing is not a good sign and we are going to see some more pain before market makes its next move. Only reason why we are still languishing at these levels instead of sun 5972 levels is expected elections results. If Nifty goes below 6140 there is strong chance for us to go to 6040 and 5972 levels. India VIX has increased to 24.7 which is really bad and we can expect more volatility in the market till end of the day Friday and on Monday we will see new trend. Every time we reached 6220 levels we are seeing strong resistance and I feel we are at top if we forget Dec, 8th event. We are also seeing all the negative news coming again at these levels.

Intraday.
Nifty could open weak at 6165 levels as indicated by global clues. It is better for wait for Nifty to consolidate and take a call. Nifty below 6165 we could see 6150 and 6135 and on the higher side above 6181 we could see 6197 and 6210. As of now Nifty is weak and would prefer selling in the market for the day than buy. One of the factors that could effect our market is crude is increasing.

Top pics for the day
As ever our picks are rocking and expect the same in future. I am expecting Bharti Airtel, Sun TV, JindalSteel, IndusInd bank and Jubl Food to do well.  For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of some key Index and Stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Dec 3rd

Trading for the week and month began on positive note with data showing FIIS still buying. Nifty opened at 6171 which is just below previous days close, but has recovered immediately in first 15 minutes. Nifty made a high of 6228 and was in a range for a whole day, but never went below 6200 to show weakness, but failed two more attempts to break the days high. What is important is Nifty closed at 6218 which is above key resistance level of 6212 which it failed before.

Shortterm Trend
Nifty has closed above 6212, but failed to clear resistance of 6227, if Nifty closes above 6240 which is a key resistance we could see Nifty going to 6280 and recent high of 6340 and Nifyt can be considered weak for shortterm only if Nifty closes below 6140  for two days for 6080 and 6040.  As of now we are in a short and long term up trend and we need to close above 6240 for few days for us to be considered in mediumbullish market.What is worrying is VIX has gone up to 23 from 21 and which is not good sign for a trending market and we will continue to see volatality this week also. VIX below 21 is good indication for stability.


Intraday,
Yestersday my ultimate target of 6227 has met and for today Nifty could open around 6190 and I feel it will not stay at that level for too long and could bounce back. Nifty can be bought only if it crosses  6212 for 6227  and 6243 which is strong resistance and above this level we may say short covering and will push to 6260 and higher levels and lower side for 10 minutes below 6280  we could Nifty going to 6161 and 6140.

Top pics for the day
As ever our picks are rocking and expect the same in future. I am expecting Lupin, RelCap, Jindal Steel, Asian Paints and Arvind to do well. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of some key Index and Stocks

Broader outlook for the Week and Dec, 2nd

Nifty opened flat and made a move of 60 points in first 20 mins after getting positive news of DII's buying for the first time in a month. It made a high of 6182 and its low is  opening which is very positive news and ultimatelty closed at 6177 which is well above 80 points. This is almost all 120 points from previous expiry. All this because of buildup for Dec, 8th elections results in four states which is considered by many as Semifinals before general elections and also expected Q2 GDP,
though they are better than before, but what is positive it seems economy is bottoming and is looking for up move.

Short term Trend
With BJP  expected to do well and many were considering is as better controlled than congress and its PM candidate Modi is seen as investor friendly worldwide. Nifty after closing above 6161 as confirmed its change of trend for short trend and could go to 6212(last time it found resistance) and 6235. Nifty should cross 6240 to reach Diwali high of 6342 which could happen on Dec, 8th if everthings goes as predicted but see a top fo 6400 which could act as strong resistance and at the lower end below 6140, there is strong chance for us to go to 6040 and 5972 levels. We could see a wild swing either way of 200 - 250 points on Dec, 9th based on results and so I feel Dec,6th which happens to be Friday can be a big day for strategies. Though technical looking good, I suggest to trade with strict SL and trade with caution. What I observerd by accident is we have formed double bottom at 5972 on Nov, 13th and Nov, 22th, which we have tested twice and the fort is still holding strong and so we are definetly heading upwards. What is concerning is VIX is still above 21 which is not good news, but we could see change in it today. Centimentally also traditionally December has been better than November. Expect Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, SBIN, LT, Maruti and Adani Enter to do well this week.


Intraday Trend
Nifty could open  positive than previous closing, based on domestic and international cues(China's PMI is just less than previous), Nifty if it can sustain above 6195 for 15 mins could go to 6212, 6227 and lower side Nifty below 6161 is weak and could go to 6140 and below it we could see more pain. Technicals were clearly indicating upmove and if you believe in technical, please follow them strictly as stated above.


Top pics for the day
I am expecting Axis Bank, Adani Ent, Indus Ind, Petronet & M&M to do well.  For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot Levels