Broader outlook and levels for Feb 28th

Nifty edged higher, with the market sentiment boosted by data showing that foreign funds remained net buyers of Indian stocks for the fourth trading session in a row and closed 6238 which is nearly 37 point up on expiry. FII Bought INR 511.15 crs and DII Sold INR 251.91 crs.

Shorterm Trend
Nifty crosse 6220 which is my second target from 6140 and has found resistance at 6240, now we below 6240 which is very strong resistance and I feel we can cross this we could 6280 and 6312 which may not be a one way move as we may see some consolidation to small correction, but market should stay above 6180 level sand below this level we we could see 6140 and  6100. This move truley based on Global cues and any reversal could reflect in our market more prominently.

Intraday Levels
As indicated by cues we could open positive and if Nifty can trade above 6260 for 10 minutes we could see 6275 and 6290 and on the lower side below 6140 for 10 minutes we could see 6225 and 6210.

Top pics for the day are   CESC, Bharat Forge, Siemens, TechM, Relcap and AxisBank for Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Commodity Levels
I expect bullion to be neutral, sell in Copper and sell in Crude but suggest to buy/sell in them  based on levels in live market and my above outlook is only based on broader trend based on previous days data.


Pivot Levels

Broader outlook for Feb 26th, 2014

Nifty edged higher for the third trading session in a row and reached highest closing level  of 6200 since one month which is 13 point above previous days close. FII Bought INR 423.41 crs and DII Sold INR 289.12 crs

Shorterm Trend
Nifty stayed above 6180 and seems heading towards 6220, it almost all met its second target, but missed it by a whisker and for me, the important point is that we have closed above the 50-day moving average which is 6180. below 6140 we could see 6100 and  6040. On the higher side there is strong chance for Nifty to reach 6240 which is strong resistance area, but the way things are panning we could touch 6140 before touching 6240.

Intraday Levels
As indicated by cues we could open flat and if Nifty can trade above 6215 for 10 minutes we could see 6230 and 6240 and on the lower side below 6185 for 10 minutes we could see 6170 and 6155.

Top pics for the day are   Auro Pharma, Tata Steel Bharti Airtel, Lic Hsg, Coal India, BPCL and JSWSteel  for Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Commodity Levels
I expect commodities to gain strength and suggest to buy in them  based on levels in live market and my above outlook is only based on broader trend based on previous days data.

Pivot Levels

Broader outlook for Feb 25th, 2014

Nifty edged higher on the first trading session of the week, with the market sentiment boosted by international cues.  FII Bought INR 266.87 crs and DII Sold INR 248.49 crs.


Shorterm Trend
Nifty stayed above 6140 for second day,and we are above my first target which is to 6180 and  now next target is 6220 and below 6100 we could see 6050 and  6000. As there is no leadership we may see some reversel very shortly and this situation will be clear in few days’ time.Nothing can be sure while we go in trade but it is likely to form a short to medium term top very sooner. It has technical trading resistances at 6220 and at 6262.  

Intraday Levels
As indicated by cues we could open in positive terrritory aIf Nifty can trade above 6195 for 10 minutes we could see 6210 and 6225 and on the lower side below 6166 for 10 minutes we could see 6150 and 6140.

Top pics for the day are   HCLTech, INFY, Sun TV, Lupin, Sun Pharma, Zeel and Axis Bank  for Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot Levels

Broader outlook for Feb 24th, 2014

Nifty Key benchmark indices edged higher on the last trading session of the week, with the market sentiment boosted by data showing that foreign funds remained net buyers of Indian stocks.  Nifty closed at 6155 with positive bias. FII Bought INR 603.41 crs and DII Sold INR 381.55 crs.

Market outlook for week
Expiry of the near month February 2014 F&O contracts may trigger volatility on the bourses in a truncated trading week. Macroeconomic data, trend in investment by foreign institutional investors, trend in global markets, trend in other global emerging markets, the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate the near term movement on the domestic bourses.  

For Indian market, it is cement, Auto, Pharma and technology stocks which are on front seat and also private banking has done well, but we are seeing banking sector being selled at every higher levels. Cyclicals seems to be gaining strength and we can look at Metals and other sectors, people are cautious and not taking long positions for domestic sectors and instead are concentrating export sector funds.

Shorterm Trend
Nifty crossed 6140, key is it should stay above this levels for one more day to move to 6180 and 6220 and below 6100 we could see 6050 and  6000, but the way market has reversed from lower levels and finding support is really good. Bulls were able to defend every down move as of now, but expect to trade in a range till we see further cues.

Intraday Levels
As indicated by cues we could open flat at 6150 - 5160 level and If Nifty can trade above 6165 for 10 minutes we could see 6180 and 619 5and on the lower side below 6140 for 10 minutes we could see 6125 and 615.

Top pics for the day are  HCLTech,Wipro, Biocon, ACC, Adani Ent, Axis  and Bank Baroda  for Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Commodity Levels
I expect commodities to gain strength and suggest to buy in them  based on levels in live market and my above outlook is only based on broader trend based on previous days data.

Pivot levels for Key Stocks

Broader outlook for Feb 21st, 2014

Nifty edged lower on concern foreign capital inflow will slow after a Federal Reserve report on Wednesday, 19 February 2014, showed support for a plan to reduce monetary stimulus for the US economy. Nifty closed at 6091 with negative bias whole day. FII Bought INR 206.46 crs and DII Sold INR 600.71 crs.


Shorterm Trend
Nifty went below 6140 and so was not able to stay above this level for second day which indicates we are not out of woods and this could be relief rally and to sustain this up it stay above 6140 for two days to move to 6180 and 6220 and if it stay below 6100 for one more day we are heading towards 6050 and  6000.


Intraday Levels
As indicated by cues we could open flat below 6000  and If Nifty can trade above 6105 for 10 minutes we could see 6120 and 6135and on the lower side below 6080 for 10 minutes we could see 6060 and 6050.

Top pics for the day are   Adani Ent, OBC, BankBaroda, Tata Steel, Divis Labs, Century Text and Ranbaxy for Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Commodity Levels
Would look to sell Gold, Silver, Nickel, Copper and Zinc where as look to buy Crude and Natural Gas , but suggest to trade based on levels in live market and my above outlook is based on broader trend based on previous days data.

Pivot Levels

Broader outlook for Feb 20th, 2014

Nifty edged higher and closed at 6152 which is 25 point above previous days close after RBI after trading hours on  18 February 2014, said it will conduct term repo auctions in March 2014 to address liquidity tightness in the banking system. FII Bought INR 468.47 crs and DII Sold INR 338.74 crs.


Shorterm Trend
Nifty crossed 6140, key is it should stay above this levels for one more day to move to 6180 and 6220 and below 6100 we could see 6050 and  6000, but I expect a small correction from current levels before making next move. Bulls were able to defend every down move as of now, but not sure how long it could continue to do.


Intraday Levels
As indicated by cues we could open weak near 6115 levels  and If Nifty can trade above 6140 for 15 minutes we could see 6155 and 6170 and on the lower side below 6105 for 15 minutes we could see 6090 and 6075.

Top pics for the day are  Sun Pharma, TCS, Adani Ent, Bharat Forge, CESC, Tata Motors  and ICICI Bank for Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Commodity Levels
We are seeing profit booking in all commodities and expect this to continue and so suggest to look to  sell based on levels in live market and my above outlook is based on broader trend based on previous days data.

Pivot levels

Broader outlook and levels for Feb 19, 2014

Nifty edged higher for the second day in a row after Finance Minister P Chidambaram set a lower fiscal deficit target of 4.1% of GDP for 2014-15 at the time of announcement of the Interim Budget for 2014-15 on Monday .As stated before Nifty found resistance at 6140 after flat opening and closed at 6127 which is very good close with a gain of 53 points. Yesterday FII Bought INR 292.23 crs and DII Sold INR 154.83 crs.

Shorterm Trend
Nifty crossed 6100 and almost all met my target of 6140 and if it can stay above 6100 for one more day we could see Nifty touching 6180 - 6200 as momentum is there and Banking has done very well, if banking can do well it is not difficult to move to this level, but strongly feel it is not time for us to be complacent as it is not easy to sustain at higher levels as market requires strong legs and it seems it does not have them as of now. Now below 6040 we could go to 5980 and 5930 levels.

Yesterday we saw PSU banking moving up which has helped Nifty move up and if this contains I am sure we are going to see higher levels and if it is just short covering we may slide to lower levels, but things are not bearish and also Capital goods have gained yesterday after ABB has come up with very good results. Gold and Crude are at 3 - 4 months high.

Intraday Levels
We could open flat as indicated and If Nifty can trade above 6140 for 15 minutes we could see 6155 and 6170 and on the lower side below 6105 for 15 minutes we could see 6090 and 6075. Please look to buy in capital goods sector which has come down as lot, but will do well in short term.

Top pics for the day are  Axis Bank Auro Pharma, LT, Siemens, TechM, Sun Pharma and Kotak Bank for Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Commodity Levels

Will look to buy Gold and Silver, Crude, Copper Nickel and Zinc where as sell in Natural Gas but will suggest to trade based on levels in live market and my above outlook is based on broader trend based on previous days data.

Pivot levels of Key Stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Feb 18th, 2014

Nifty edged higher on the first trading session of the week after the Finance Minister P Chidambaram said that the fiscal deficit will be contained at 4.6% of GDP for the year ending 31 March 2014  and will be pruned further to 4.1% of GDP in 2014-15 and that the CAD will be contained at $45 billion in 2013-14. Nifty closes at 6075 and FII Bought INR 522.82 crs and DII Sold INR 245.17 crs

Shortterm trend
As I said Vote on account I feel is non event and is just a day event and we did not see any significant change in momentum and I strong feel crossing 6100 is very important and sustaining above this level for two days may move market to 6140 and 6180 levels and on the lower side  below 6040 I said we could see 5980 levels which is 200 day DMA and 5920 a we should take into consideration did not close below psychological 6,000 mark Other way if you want to trade range it is buy at 6000 and sell at 6100 market as state before.

What is looking good is private banking and Auto sector have seen good revival and where as PSU were still weak and could impact the move of the sector.Technical charts are still suggesting that if Nifty stands tall above 6075 then it can try to come near 6100-6105 marks for once. India VIX has come down by 5% to 15.83 and option PCR has come to 1.29.

Intraday Levels
We could open flat as indicated and If Nifty can trade above 6080 for 15 minutes we could see 6095 and 6110 and on the lower side below 6060 for 15 minutes we could see 6045 and 6030.

Top pics for the day are  Auro Pharma, M&M, DrReddys, CESC, Hexaware, Biocon and Adani Port for Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Commodity Levels
Will look to buy Bullion, Crude, Natural Gas, Copper and Natrual Gas where as  sell in Zinc and Lead but will suggest to trade based on levels in live market and my above outlook is based on broader trend based on previous days data.

Pivot levels of Key Stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Feb 17th, 2014

Nifty surged on the last trading session of the week as easing of inflation based on the WPI to 8-month low of 5.05%. Nifty opened well, but was not able to sustain and went lower to 5985 despite efforts to go up, but has found resistance at 6030 levels, but towards the end of the day rallied to 6048 which is a resistance zone. SBI is big loser because if it bad results. Negligible participation on Friday by both FII's and DII's.

Shortterm trend
I feel Vote on account I feel is non event and is just a day event, but dont see it changing any trend and I fell Gloabl events needed to be looked after for cues. As stated before below 6040 I said we could see 6000 and 5950 and Nifty has reversed from 5980 levels which is 200 day DMA.  As long as Nifty  closes above psychological 6,000 mark I dont see major issue, but above 6070 we could see 6100 and 6140 and Below 6000 we could see 5950 and 5920. Other way if you want to trade range it is buy at 6000 and sell at 6100 market.

Intraday Levels
We could open with gapup of 20 points and If Nifty can trade above 6070 for 15 minutes we could see 6085 and 6100 and on the lower side below 6050 for 15 minutes we could see 6035 and 6020.

Top pics for the day are  Tata Motors, Gail, Tata Elxsi, SBIN, TechM, Sun TV and Titan for Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Commodity Levels
Will look to buy Copper, Gold , Crude and Sell Natural Gas, but will suggest to trade based on levels in live market and my above outlook is based on trend.

Pivot levels of Key Stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Feb 14th, 2014

Nifty dropped to  lowest level in more than one week as weakness in Asian and European stocks dampened investors' sentiment, but closed above psychological 6,000 mark. Cipla is biggest loser in Nifty because of bad results. Nifty fell 82.90 points % to 6,001.10, its lowest closing level since 4 February 2014 it has hit a low of 5,991.10 in intraday trade and has made high of 6,094.40in first 15 minutes. FII's were net buyers, but market has come down which is continuous to be major concern.

ShorTerm Trend
Stated before that Nifty is getting tired and when world is moving up it is crawling where as when markets move down we will be crumble, it has happened and I think we are heading towards 5930. In my previous blog I said below 6040 we could see 6000 and 5950 and we are heading towards that level. Nifty is at key psychological 6,000 mark and not sure how long we can sustain at this level. Below 6000 we could see 5970 and 5940 and above 6080 we could head to 6140 and 6200.

Intraday Levels
We are going to good opening at 6030 and as indicated by cues, what is important is Nifty should stay above  6035 for 15 minutes we could see 6050 and 6070 and on the lower side  below 6030 for 15 minutes we could see 6015 and 6000. What we should for in indian market is SBI results which are expected to be not good, with they are worse I am sure we are going to see sub 6000 levels for today. Second half of the day is key and suggest you to trade with carefully.

Top pics for the day are  Jindal Steel, JSWSteel, Sun Pharma, SBIN, HCLTech, DRReddy and Bajaj Auto for Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Commodity callsWill look to buy Silver, Nickel, Crude and Natural Gas, but will suggest to trade based on levels.

Pivot levels of Key Stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Feb 12, 2014

Nifty settled with small gains in what was a lackluster trading session has hit a high of 6,081.85 and a low of 6,053.25 in intraday trade. TataMotors made a good move today based on results and DRReddy's has seen profit booking after very good results. IT did very well after consolidating for few days led by HCLTech. FII were seller of 170 crores where as DII's bought 240 crores.

Shortterm Trend
What we have seen is US recovering more than 70% from it recent low where as we are seeing very small move in Nifty, but the move is never a strong one and it seems lazy and is reluctant to move up. I will stick to my earlier short term levels, Nifty if it can close above 6100 we could see 6145 and 6190 and weakness can be seen below 6040 and we could see 5980 and 5940. Janet Yellen's dovish comments may help emerging markets including india

Intraday Levels
We are going to see  gapup opening of 30 points and as indicated by cues and could open around 6090 based on Janet Yellen comments. If Nifty can trade above 6090 for 15 minutes we could see 6105 and 6120 and on the lower side  below 6060 we could see 6045 and 6030.

Top pics for the day are  Bharat Forge, DrReddy, ACC, TechM, HCLTech, Apollo Tyres and Axis Bank. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Commodity calls
Will look to Neutral  on Bullion, buy on Base Metals and suggest buying in crude and sell in Natural Gas, but would take call in real market and suggest to trade based on levels.

Pivot levels of Key Stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Feb 11th, 2014

Even though before market cues have indicated good opening for Nifty, it is never a great start and it made its high in first 15 minutes and market has never crossed this level and has traded in this range through out the day. Nifty closed near low of the day at 6053. FII's have bought 455 crores and DII's have bought 290 crores.

Shortterm Trend
Nifty seems to be losing ground and we may see some correction in nifty in next few days  based on the cues of market as are seeing non participation of big players. What is not looking good is on good global cues we are not moving much where as on okay global cues we are moving down.  I am sticking to yesterdays short term levels of Nifty is okay along as it is above 6040 and if Nifty can close above 6100 we could see 6145 and 6190 and  weakness can be seen below 6040 and we could see 5980 and 5940.

Intraday Levels
We are going to flat opening opening and as indicated by cues and could open around 6060. If Nifty can trade above 6080 for 15 minutes we could see 6095 and 6110 and on the lower side  below 6050 we could see 6035 and 6020.

Top pics for the day are  Tata Motors, AbirlaNova, Cairn, Sun Pharma, SBIN, Bajaj Auto and HCLTech For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Commodity calls
Will look to buy Bullion, Base Metals(Nickel and copper is best of the lot) and also Energy but will suggest to trade based on levels.

Pivot levels of Key Stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Jan 10th, 2014

Nifty edged higher in a choppy trading session and has hit their highest closing level in one week. International cues were supportive and broader market did well to close at a good level. Despite a good opening at one time, Nifty made a low of 6030, but recovered to cover the loss and closed at 6063. What is looking good is both FII and DII were net buyers.

Short Term trend
Nifty seems to be in better position with recent rally from its lows of 5930, but we could also see a U turn if things are not supportive with some key data to be released shortly  and also results which are due in next week. Nifty above 6040 which is good support area and if Nifty can close above 6100 we could see 6145 and 6190 and  weakness can be seen below 6040 and we could see 5980 and 5940.

 If Nifty can close above 6145 I think we could see a good rally to higher levels as strong hands are seen entering into market at lower levels and this could be pre election rally. We also remember when ever every one has written market to go down it has rebounded and this could again happen, but the rally has been lead by Cement and Steel, if we really have to see rally we need support from broader market which is not coming.  May be we will get to know which direction market is going to trade in next few days.


Intraday Levels
We are going to have positive opening and as indicated by cues and could open around 6085. If Nifty can trade above 6090 for 15 minutes we could see 6105 and 6120 and on the lower side if Nifty is not able below 6060 we could see 6045 and 6030.


Top pics for the day are  Tata Steel, Ambuja Cem, Hexaware, SBIN, GodrejInd,NMDC and DLF. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of Key Stocks

Broader outlook and Levels for Jan 4th, 2014

We have seen huge sell of and Nifty has closed at 6001 and from a high of 6074. It has been a one way move which is down and we are going to see more pain with liquidity coming down. FII's sold 740 crores and DII's sold 70 crores.

Shorterm Trend
Now we are in a medium term down trend as Nifty broke 6045 and we have closed at 6000 which is immediate support and next support is only at 5950 - 5970 levels as 200 DMA is 5971 which is key support and life line. If we break this level convincingly  I am sure we are heading to 5850 and 5700 levels and on the higher side above 6140 we are in shorterm up trend and above 6250 we are in a medium term uptrend. Financial markets world wide were moving down and Dow Jones is below 200 day DMA.

We are clearly in a medium term bear market and I suggest you not to get take fresh exposure towards long positionally as we seems to be heading down further another 100 - 150 points.
Try to sell stocks which have high FII's exposure and if you have exposure please sell at every rally. We may see small relief rally from lower levels as corrections are not going to be one sided, but wont see it sustaining for long.


Intraday Levels
We are going to have gap down of 60 points in  Nifty and could open around 5940. If Nifty can trade above 5950 for 15 minutes we could see 5965 and 5980 and on the lower side if Nifty is not able above 5940 we could see 5925 and 5910. What is alarming is even IT is cracking and Pharma may follow later which is not a good sign, but you can short any metal company that is there on your screen.


Top pics for the day are Bajaj Auto, Lupin, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Infy,  ICICI Bank and Hindalco. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Commodity calls
Will look to buy Bullion and Sell in Energy and  Base metals  But suggest to take a call based on your levels.

Pivot Levels for Index and stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Feb 3rd, 2014

Nifty settled with small gains on last trading day of the week and month after seeing high intraday volatility throughout the day and snapped 5 day falling trend. Banking and IT sectors have  raised for the day with most of the stocks making good gains. Nifty opened above previous days low and made a high of 6096 and has traded in a range throught out the day and closed at 6089.

Short Term Trend
Told you yesterday that we may see some relief rally which may not sustain and with some major companies coming up with results we may see more volatality, but the bias is downwards. Nifty is good if closes above 6135 for 6190 and 6230 and below 6045 we could see 6000 and 5960. 100 DMA is 6129 and 200 DMA is 5971 and so these are the key levels to be watched. BankNifty is still weak and if it can trade above 10200 it is good if not we could see 10000 and 9800 levels which will keep more pressure on Nifty, I am expecting a small bounce in BankNifty till 10400, but may not sustain.


Intraday Levels
Nifty could open with could open 25 - 30 points below Friday's close and could open at 6060. Nifty is good above 6090 for 6105 and 6120 and lower side below 6060 for 10 minutes we coud see 6045 and 6030. IT and Pharma should do well today we could also see some good surpirsing move towarads higher side in banking also.

Top pics for the day are Axis bank, Arvind, Maruti, CESC, PNB, Tata Motors, GAIL and  Lupin . For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.


Pivot levels for day of key Stocks and Index