Broader outlook and levels for Jan 31st, 2014

Indian stocks edged lower in choppy trade after US Fed announced further reduction in its monthly bond purchases and signaled that it is likely to keep reducing its purchases in the coming months, citing a pickup in US economic activity and we have seen 5th straight day down move in Nifty. FII were net sellers for 430 crores and DII bought 130 crores. Nifty opened with huge gap down and opened at 6066 levels and has moved further down despite efforts to recover from levels has made a low of 6027 but recovered in last 30 minutes to close at 6073 on short covering. India VIX is at 17.25 down by 0.79 which is a clear indication of trend clarity which is downside.

Shortterm trend
Nifty is extremely oversold and we may see relief rally which could be temporary and there is also posibility to fill the gap it has created on 30th, Jan in next few days, but wont expect more than that as of now. Nifty is good above 6140 if it closes for two consecutive days for 6190 and 6240 and on the lower side below 6050 we could see 6000 and 6050. BankNifty is worst performing along with Metals and for Nifty to make any move BankNifty is important as it is heaviest in index. I am expecting selling at every logical high level for short term.

Intraday Levels
Nifty could oppen with small 5 - 7 points positive, but could see some volatality on the Nifty but bias is towards upside for the day. Nifty is good above 6090 for 6105 and 6120 and lower side below 6060 for 10 minutes we coud see 6045 and 6030. IT should do well today and please look  for good stocks to trade in it.

Top pics for the day are Hero Motors,  Titan, Auro Pharma,Gail, TechM, Voltas and DrReddy. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Commodity calls
Will look to buy Bullion  at current levels as they made low and are at good support and Sell on Base Metals except Copper and Negative on Energy in both Crude  and Natural Gas, but will suggest to trade based on levels.

Pivot Levels for Index and stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Jan 30th, 2014

Nifty opened well and made a high of 6170 and never tried to cross that levels and is in downward journey through out the day and made a low of 6110 and recovered to close at 6120. This is fourth straight day for Nifty to close at lower levels.After hovering in green till mid-afternoon trade, Nifty suddenly slipped into the red in late trade. FII's bought 250 crores and DII's were sellers of 17 crores.  What we have seen Oil, Pharma and IT supporting up move where as Banking and Metals sectors are trying to drag the market lower.

Short Term Trend
With Fed going ahead with further 10 Billion dollars taper we are going to see most of the markets bottoming out as it is discounted and are better prepared to handle this move. Nifty is trading continuously below 6144 and next support is 6110 from where it took support yesterday and if trades below this levels we are going go to 6050 and 5960 levels and above 6144 for two days we could go to 6190 and 6230. BankNifty is looking very weak  an its next support is at 10000 and is going to make Nifty weaker despite support from Oil, Pharma and IT sectors. Expect Nifty to close in the range of 6030 - 6060 levels.

Intraday levels
With US going ahead with further tapper we are going to see huge gap down of nearly 80 points which could see Nifty opening at 6040 - 6050 levels which is very good support levels. If Nifty could sustain above 6060 for 15 minutes we could see moving to 6075 and 6090 and on the lower side below 6060 for 15 minutes we could see 6045 and 6030.

Suggest trader traders to not trade on expiry day in futures instead trade light in stock cash with strict stop loss.


Top pics for the day
Top pics for the day are Hero Motors,  Havells, Auro Pharma, ICICI Bank, Jindal Steel, RelInfra and Reliance .For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Commodity calls
Will look to buy  Gold and Buy on Copper and sell on other Base Metals and Neutral on Energy with Crude being sell and Natural Gas being Buy and would  trade  based on levels.

Pivot levels for the day

 

Broader outlook and Levels for Jan 29th, 2014

Nifty opened flat and made a low of 6085 at 11.05 AM when RBI has come up with Repo rate has been increased by 25 basis points to 8% . Indian stocks fell for the third day and closed at 6126 which is below key support level of 6142 for 2 days. Maruti Suzuki India tumbled in volatile trade after the company came with proposal by Suzuki to own plant and sell the cars to Maruti which is example for bad governence and has is biggest dragger of Index.  FII Sold INR 1267 crores and DII Bought INR 1179 crores.

Shortterm Trend
Yesterday I said we could go to 6080 below 6144 and we have made a low of 6085 and found support and made a good recovery for 6147 which is again my level 6144, but towards end of the day Maruti dragged the index and closed below key level for second day. If we continue to stay below 6144 which is 32.8%  Fibonacci retracement level, I am reiterating that 6080, 6000 and 5960 are possible and it may not be a one way journey and on the higher side above 6250 we could see 6300 and 6350. We may see some pullback as market is in extreme over sold zone and we could see a small pullback to 6180 - 6200, but we will see the selling pressure again at these levels. We also has gap to be filled between 6260 to 6190 and I am not saying it will happen now, even if it happens it is going to be half fill.


Intraday Trend
I expected in my previous support at 6080 and resistance at 6144 and look at the way Nifty has traded. We are going to see flat to positive opening and I think we may see volatility as we are approaching expiry whichi just a day away. Nifty is buy above 6140 if it stays for 10 minutes for 6155 and 6170 and below 6120 we could see 6105 and 6090. IT is what I am looking to buy along with some beaten down stocks.


Top pics for the day
Top pics for the day are Bajaj Auto, Axis Bank, Tata Com, Maruti, Auro Pharma and  Dabur .For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.
 

Commodity calls
Will look to buy Energy, Bullion  and Sell on Base Metals and would Buy/Sell on based on levels


Pivot Levels for Key stocks and Index

Broader outlook and Levels for Jan 28th, 2014

As expected Nifty opened weak and never seemed to recovered and failed to go above days open and closed at 6135.6 and which is below the key support level. Banking, Metals and reality were biggest losers and we have seen across the board selling which is biggest fall since September, 2013. With in few day Nifty PCR has come from 1.3 to awful 0.88 and VIX has gone to 18.6 which shows a clear strength in trend which is down. FII Sold INR 1334.21 crs and DII Bought INR 151.02 crs which is alarming.

Shorterm trend
With Nifty closing below 6140 levels and if close one more day below this level we are going to see more selling pressure and we could move to 6080, 6000 and 5960 levels very shortly which is 200 day DMA . Market breath is extremely weak and lot depends on RBI policy anouncement. Nifty can only look good above 6250 which it jumped with a huge gap down and I am sure we are going to have this gap filled some time from now.

We are now below 32.8 retracement level which is 6144, and 100 day DMA is  at 6100 which is next hope, with the type of fall we are seeing I dont see this support holding with lot of selling pressure. IT and Pharma are only lifelines, but they dont have the capacity to take Nifty if banking and other rate sensitives turns even more bearish. Suggest to move to defensives like IT, Pharma and FMCG and go short on Rate sensitives like Banking, Auto and Reality and Cyclicls like Metals and Infra.

Intraday Trend
No support will work in current market we seems to be one way route which is down. Today we also have RBI policy which could play major role in market movement unless they surprise the market with cut/increase in rates. Majority expect status quo. We may see gap down of 30 points which will see market opening at 6110 Suggest not to trade till policy announcement which will come at 11 AM and then take a trade. Nifty is good below 6090 for 6075 and 6060 if it stays below this level for 10 minutes and above 6110 for 10 minutes we could see 6125 and 6140. Banknifty is good trade and is now looking to reach 10350 to 10400 in next few days. We may see Nifty and Banknifty pullback if RBI comes out with optimistic moves and it is not ruled out, but I dont think it can sustain for long.

Top pics for the day
No not easy to pic stocks for today as we have seen across the board selling and now we need to be carefull, but my top pics for the day are Jindal Steel, Bicon, Relcapital, Tata Steel, Maruti  and Glenmark.For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot Levels for Key stocks and Index

Broader outlook and levels for Jan 27th, 2014

Nifty and Bank Nifty edged lower on the last trading session of the week after the RBI governor's strong warning on inflation and his hawkish comments and it is combined with weakness in Asian, European stocks, Rupee weakness and overnight losses for US stocks. Reality, Auto and Banking sectors are major losers as they are rate sensitive. Nifty opened better than expected but never looked to sustain at these levels and is in a one way path which is downwards through out the day and closed at 6267.

Shorterm trend
Nifty is now looking very weak with combination of Global and local data. RBI's hawkish statement has spooked the market and Rupee is getting weaker and above 63 rs we are going to see more pain. As per Fibonacci retracement level taking 5972 as low and 6416 as high we are have closed just above 6256 which is 61.8% retracement level and above 6194 which is 50% and next major support is 6142 which is 32.8%. The other key levels to watch are 50 day DMA and EMA are 6217 and 6214 and 100 DMA and EMA are 6100 and 6117. I expect market to find support only at 6135- 6140 levels before expiry and if it moves below this level the last hope is 6100 - 6110. The type of weakness we are seeing the market Nifty can close for this expiry any where between 6100 -  6150.

I stated in my last blog that every time we have moved towards 6350 we have reversed to lower levels and this has happened for fourth time in last 3 months and I also stated that when US is at one month low we are at 45 days high which is not going to sustain for too long and look at the way we have have come back and every time we come from these above 6330 levels we are seeing a sharp fall to 6130 - 6140 and this is bound to happen again for third time and first time when we have reached these levels during Diwali we have gone to 5972 levels.  With the type of fall we are going to see on Monday which is going to be sub 6200 levels which is below 50 day DMA and EMA and also below 50% retracement. Nifty can be considered for higher levels only if it can close above 6255 levels for two consecutive days and below 6145 we are heading towards 6100 and 6040 levels.



Indian Rupee is weak above 63 and could go to 64.5 and also base metals are going to be weak and Gold is going to bullish if it can trade above 1250 and also Crude could go to 98 in international market.

Intraday Levels
Told you in Friday we are going down, look at the fall of Friday and also the gap down of nearly 100 points with the cues we are getting. The gap down we are getting is not ideal to trade today. I would buy Nifty above 6195 if it stays for 10 - 15 minutes for 6210 and 6225 and on the lower side, Nifty is sell if trades above 6195 and breaks down this level for 6180 and 6165 which is a good support. The last hope for Nifty is 6140 levels.

Tops pick of the day are
I suggest you to pick any PSU Bank and sell I am sure you will make money, but my top pics for the day are BankIndia, PNB, BankBaroda, Kotak Bank, JSW Steel, HCLTech, Idea and Asian Paints. Clear sells for the day are Banking, Auto, Reality(would sell on rise because of gap down) and buy in IT and FMCG. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot Levels for Key stocks and Index

Broader outlook and levels for Jan 24th, 2014

Small gains took  BSE Sensex, to a record closing high and the  Nifty to its highest closing level in more than six weeks, but I feel the breath of the market is indicating tiring. Nifty opened at 6335 and is in range through out the day but made a slow rally to above 6350, but was not able to sustain and closed at 6345 which is below . FII were buyers of 400 crores and DII's were sellers of nearly of same quantity.

Shortterm Trend
The trend is up for short term and we are seeing slowly, steady but tiring move towards above 6350 which is very strong resistance since last three months. If we can close above 6350 for 2 days for move to 6416 and 6450 and on the lower side, if it closes below 6300 we could see 6250 and 6200. I am expecting minor support at 6305 and we may see support at these levels, but major support is at 6250. US is at lowest close in a month and where as we are at highest in last 45 days. Nifty VIX is at 15.58 and it shows complacency and I am sure we are going to see some sudden action.


Intraday levels
We may see gap down of 30 points in Nifty, but may find support at key support levels of 6310 levels and I suggest to buy Nifty above 6320 for 6335 and 6350 and on the lower side if Nifty goes below 6300 and stays there for 15 minutes, we could move to 6285 and 6270. Banking is giving clear indication of tiredness and the bias is towards downside.

My top pics for the day are Adani Ent, M&M, Titan, Axis Bank, LT, BankBarado, Glenmark and Jindal Steel. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of Index and key stocks for the day

Broader outlook and levels for Jan 23th, 2014

Nifty opend at 6310 and is trading and is in up slow up move and made a high of 6249.5 and reversed to close at 6339 and Indian stocks edged higher for the third day in a row Some stocks have given very good breakout and FII's were buyers of 280  Crores and DII's were sellers of 90 Crores.

Shorterm Term
Nifty is now in a no trade zone, as I told u before Nifty should close above 6350 for two day for 6416 and above. With fiscal policy round the corner the momentum is defintely towards upside and on the downside trade is only below 6250 for 6190 and 6130. IT and Pharma are leading the market and banks are not participating which has major weightage.

Intraday term
Nifty should is good above 6350 for 6365 and 6380 and on the lower side below 6320 we could see 6305 and 6290. Expect Pharma to do well and it is better to look for  these stocks. LT after it results will react and is a must watch stock.


Top picks for the day
My top pics for the day are Century Textiles, Sun Pharma, Bank of India, Dabur, CESC and Raymond. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of Index and key stocks for the day

Broader outlook and levels for Jan 22nd, 2014

Nifty opened well and was in a range for the whole day and as exepcted found resistance at higher level 6318 and found support at 6300 levels. FII's were net sellers of 40 crores and DII's bought 180 Crores

Intraday Levels
Nifty could open negative to flat and Nifty should cross 6305convincingly with volumes and stay for 15 mins  for 6320 and 6335 and on the lower side below 6285 we could see 6270 and 6255. IT is strong is the leader and banking should support for further move in Nifty. What is good is some Nifty heavy weights were on strong foot.


Top picks for the day
My top pics for the day are Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, Kotak Bank, KPIT, Corp Bank and Lupin . For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels for key stocks

Broader outlook and Levels for Jan 21st, 2014

Nifty opened flat and is negative biased initially for first 30 mins and later made a decent rally to 6300 and was not able to sustain at this level for too long and went back to previous close, but later made rally towards 6300. FII's were net buyers of 384 crores and what is looking good is DII's bought 310 crores.

Shorterm Trend
Wrote yesterday that Nifty has short term resistance at 6305 if Nifty was able to close above 6250 and it most of the day, nifty was not able to cross this level and next resistance is 6350 and for the trend to be changed Nifty should close below 6250 for two days for levels of 6190 and 6130. Banking is major trend setter and today BankNifty did well along with IT for a major move above 6300. Nifty PCR Ration is now at 1.30 after long time and the type of support we are seeing at 6250 we could see move very shortly towards 6350 as indicated by technical Indicators.

Intraday Day
As indicated Nifty is going to open above 6315 and now the import thing is Nifty should cross 6315 convincingly with volumes and stay for 15 mins  for 6330 and 6345 which is very strong resistance and on the lower side below 6285 we could see 6270 and 6255. IT is strong is the leader and banking should support for further move in Nifty. What is also good is we have closed at highest level of the day.

Top picks for the day
My top pics for the day are Auro Pharma, IndusInd Bank, SSLT, Adani Ent, Relinfra, RCOM ,  Asian Paints, Wipro and Havells. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels for key stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Jan 20th, 2014

Key benchmark indices edged lower in choppy trade as IT major TCS' third quarter results fell short of market expectations and as private sector bank HDFC Bank reported a decline in net interest margin in Q3 December 2013.  Nifty opened well and made a high of 6327 and later found profit booking made a low of 6246, but later found support at 6250 which is expected before and closed at 6270 levels. What is not convincing is FII's presence is negligible.

Short term trend
Nifty is good as long as it is above 6250 and we have seen Nifty taking support at this level on Friday. Next minor resistance is at 6305 and as ever major resistance is at 6350 and on the lower side, if Nifty stays below 6250 for two days we could see levels of 6190 and 6130. Banking is looking very weak now and without support of banking we could not see Nifty rallying upside. We major companies like Asian Paints, Ultratech, LT, HDFC and other major midcaps coming up with results we could see Nifty volatility and as RBI is coming with its policy on Jan 28th so we may some action in this week before this major event.

Overall trend is getting weaker and also we have seen selling in Mid caps and Small caps which is nothing but investors selling risky assets and it shows risk aversion getting down and so Nifty is bound to go down. China's data  even though better than expected is also not supporting other markets and I am very confident the run we have seen in Metal sector is going to fade and we are going to see more pain in them. I am expecting Nifty to touch 6195 this week which is 50 DMA before any fresh move either side. Strength of Dollar is go

Intraday Trend
As indicated by other Asian markets with lot of doubts on China's growth, we are going to see weak opening by Nifty. For the day Nifty is good above 6276 for 6290 and 6310 and below 6250 we could see 6235 and 6220. Would like to watch Banks, Metals and IT sectors for the day.


Top picks for the day
My top pics for the day are Jublfood, PNB, Bajaj Auto,  OBC, HindPetro,DLF and TechM. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels for key stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Jan 17th, 2014

We had a lackluster day with Nifty opening well above day befores close, but after making a high og 6346 which is near key resistance area it has reversed and lost its gain and the bias is downwards and made a low of 6300, but took support and closed at 6318 which is 2 points less than previous day. FII's were buyers to the tune of 480 crores and DII's were sellers of 700 crores and we have seen profit booking and Midcaps and Small caps underperformed which is not a good indication.

Short term trend
Yesterday I wrote that we have a history of Nifty getting weaker near 6350 levels and it did that. I am reaterating that if Nifty want to move to all time high it should cross 6360 confidently and it seems Nifty doesn't have enought strength and it seems very tired and is slowly drifting down to 6280 level from where it may find strength. Nifty is good above 6360 for 6400 and 6440 and below 6260 it could go to 6195, 6140 which are very good support areas. Banking is getting weaker which is a
concern and also IT and Pharma is taking pause.

Intraday levels
As indicated we could see Nifty opening just above 6305 and also as we are seeing profit booking which is keeping more pressure on Nifty and I am bias towards lower levels, but suggest not to trade today. Above 6320 we could see 6335 and 6350 and below 6290 we could see 6275 and 6260.

Top picks for the day
My top pics for the day are Bharti Airtel, Bharat Forge, Axis Bank, JublFood, HCLTech and BHEL. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels for key stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Jan 16th, 2014

Nifty opened flat and slowly nifty gained strength and it has moved to high of 6323 and closed at 6320 based on government data showed that inflation based on the  wholesale price index (WPI) eased to five-month low at 6.16% in December 2013. Easing inflation provided legroom for the central bank to cut interest rates in its next policy meet in order to bolster growth.. FII's were heavy buyers to the tune of 700 Crores for first time this year.

Shorterm trend
Nifty closed above 6250 for second and this time it made a solid move to 6320 and now next major resistance is 6360 and if it can cross this we are going to see all time hight in Nifty. We could see profit booking at 6360 before moving towards all time high. We have a history of trap at 6350 levels of bull trap before we have seen corrections. With results season gaining momentum we could see the move happening either way but my preference is on the up side. What we are seeing is Banks and Infra coming back to favor of investors.

Intraday Trend
We are going to see positive opening and Nifty staying above 6345 for 15 mins could see 6360 and 6375 and below 6330 for 15 mins could see 6315 and 6300. We have many crucial results today. TCS,Axis Bank and Bajaj Auto will present their number. HCLTech has come up with good results which will please street.

Top picks for the day
My top pics for the day are Adani Ent,  PNB, BankBaroda, Cairn,Yes Bank, RelInfra and Maruti. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels for key stocks

Broader outlook and Key levels for Jan 15th, 2014

Nifty and other Asian market corrected based on comments of Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart on Monday, 13 January 2014, said that the US economy is on solid footing and he would support continued cuts to stimulus despite better than expected CPI data. Nifty made high of 6280, but later drifted down to 6235 below key support of 6250 and closed the day 6243. FII were net sellers to the tune of 250 Crores.

Short term trend
In my earlier comment I wrote if Nifty closes above 6250 for two consecutive days it is good , but it has failed to do and today is key and if we can close above 6250 it is good for the market to move above 6300 and 6350 levels and trend change can happen only if Nifty closes below 6175 for 6130 and 6060. With results of some Nifty biggies expected in few days we could see the move either way, but my bias is towards higher side. India VIX has come down below 16 which is a concerning factor. What is alarming is FII's were not participating in the market and we have seen outflows.


Intraday Levels
Nifty could open positive  above 6250 and if it can sustain above this level it is good. Nifty is buy above 6257 for 6273 and  6290 and below 6235 we could see Nifty going to 6220 and 6205.

Top picks for the day
My top pics for the day are Adani Ent, CESC, Zeel,  Auro Pharma, TechM, Axis Bank and TataChem. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels for key stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Jan 14th

Markets surged on Monday to end nearly 2% higher recording their highest single-day since last Novemeber led by IT majors and hopes that the Reserve Bank of Indiawould maintain status quo on key policy rates for the second straight month and also taking cues from US job data expecting even tappering may not be accelerated in near future. Nifty opened made a high of 6244 in first 15 mins and is in a range below key resistance figure which happens to be 6250 through the day and made a rally in last 30 minutes to close at 6272 which is well above 6250. FII's were net buyers.

Short term Trend
With better than expected CPI data we are going to see a strong rally again and as we have closed above 6250 very convincingly and also with results in this weak from Industry heavies are expected to be better. Now next resistance we have is at 6340 and above it 6400 and it may not be a one way ride, but is bound to reach that level. Rupee strength could also add to this rally as Dollar is getting weaker which is a major boost. Nifty is weak below 6130 for 6060 and 5972 which may not happen
in near term. India VIX has come back to 16 levels and may go above 16 levels in few days which is good for the market. Nifty PCR ratio has increased drastically to 1.17 which is very bullish indication as we have seen lot of put writing happening at 6200 which is a clear indication that 6200 will act as a good support for short term.

Intraday Trend
We are going to see gap down today which is good as we are going to fill some gap. US market closed lower and Asian markets are also supporting this move. Nifty is buy above 6250 for 6265 and 6280 and below 6225 we could see 6210 and 6195.


Top picks for the day
My top pics for the day are HDFC Bank, TechM, Ranbaxy, Wipro Bharat Forge and Siemens. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels for key stocks

Broader outlook and Levels for Jan 13th, 2014

It has become habit for Nifty to open better and suddenly making a lows in first 30  mins and on Friday it has opened at 6179 and made a low of 6140 and recovered later to made a high of 6137 and later started giving up all the gains and closed below its open price. We saw full 100 points swing on Friday’s session but it give up almost 70 points from its intraday high in post 2 pm trades.

Short term trend
Nifty is now in no trade zone for positional trade. What we have seen is Nifty is making lower lows but was not breaking down or making a decisive move despite a non convincing effort on Friday and as expected made a U turn and closed just above the previous days lows. The key levels to be watched are below 6130 which is 38.2% Fib level taking 5972 as low and 6416 as hig and also very strong support on many parameters, we are going lower to 6066 and 5972 levels which is a very much possibilities as we have couple events like Q3 results and also data lined up on January 13th which is CPI data for November and WPI data on January 15th could set the trend and on the other side close above 6250 is very important for Nifty to go to higher levels. Markets are going to be choppy this week and suggest to trade with caution. Nifty has closed near 6170 which is 50 EMA for three day consecutive days in last week. PCR ratio has come down below 1 to .988 and VIX has come down to 15.58 from above 16.5 levels. We have Nifty majors TCS, Axis Bank, Bajaj Auto, HCL Tech, HDFC Bank, Reliane, ITC and Wipro coming up with results. Poor IIP number are blessing in disguise as RBI will think twice to increase Repo rate and US job figures will help the markets.

Intraday levels
Based on bad US payroll data Nifty if it opens open with a gapup of above 6192 which is 50 DMA and i feel if we can sustan above this for today it is good for the market. Above 6192 is good for 6210 and 6225 and below 6170 we could go to 6155 and 6140 where you could find good support. We are at a key level and we may see small rally towards 6220 where we could see resistance and can be used to sell Nifty if it comes down after crossing.


Top picks for the day
My top pics for the day are ITC, TechM, HCL Tech, Apollo Tyres, Asian Paints and Zeel. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels for key stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Jan 10th, 2014

Nifty opened flat and slowly drifted down and made a low of 6148, but later made a move towards 6184, but ultimately closed at 6171 which is same as yesterdays close. Most of the day market is bearish and bearishness is continuing as there seems to be not much support from buyers. FII's are not buying at all and is a major worrying  factor as net buy is only 3 Crores.

Shortterm Trend
Nifty closed just above 50 EMA of 6170,  and I feel 6100 will act as a good support at lower with results starting with IT major coming with results we will see a clear direction in next few days.  I am sticking ti earlier levels, On the higher Nifty can only considered in uptrend if it closes above 6250 for few days, but immediate resistance is at 6220 levels which is again a minor resistance. We are getting weaker and are diffently heading down and only saving events are Q3 results.

Intradays Trend
We are expected to open weak and as it could below key support levels I expect weakness to continue and is a market which is sell in every rise. Nifty is good only above 6190 for 6205 and 6220 and on the lower side below 6150 for 10 minutes would lead the market to 6135 and 6120 where you may find supports.

Top picks for the day
My top pics for the day are JindalSteel, BankBaroda, IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, Jubl Food, Hexaware  and TCS. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels for key stocks

 

Broader outlook and levels for Jan 9th, 2014

Nifty opened in positive teritory and made a high of 6190 and has traded in a rang through out the day and and corrected 20 points towards the end closed at 6174 which is just above previous days close. Nifty closed in positive territory first time in this year after four consecutive days of losses. Pharma and banking has done better today.There is negligeble participation by FII's  which is worrying factor. Shortterm Trend Nifty closing below its 50 day DMA  of 6194 and the trend seems to be down though we have made close above 50 EMA of 6170,  I wrote yesterday that two consecutive closes below 6170 is bad and market is heading towards 6100 levels which is minor support. As it did not happen we are safe as of now and the clear trend will be known  in next few days. On the higher Nifty can only considered in uptrend if it closes above 6250 for few days, but immediate resistance is at 6220 levels which is again a minor resistance. Banknifty has done better in closing better and if it can sustain for a day or two we could see some support, if not more pain is expected. Intraday Trend We could open bit weaker, but could find support at 6170 levels. I would go long in Nifty above 6190 for 6205 and 6220 and on the lower side below 6165 for 10 minutes would lead the market to 6150 and 6135 where you may find supports. I would avoid trading Nifty and insted prefer to trade in individual stocks where you will see some moves as Nifty will be in a range and you will see lot of whipsaws. Top picks for the day My top pics for the day are  RelInfra, TechM,Hexaware, DRReddy, ,Bharti Airtel, HPCL and Maruti. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Broader outlook and levels for Jan 8th, 2014

Nifty closed 29 points below Mondya's close at 6162 and 5th consecutive fall. Nifty opened well, but slowly it started giving up and has traded at low levels despite its efforts to move up. FII's were net sellers.

Short term trend
Nifty closing below its 50 day EMA and it shows now we are in a clear downtrend and if we close below 6170 for two consecutive days heading towards 6050 and 5970 levels is confirmed. The next level to be watched is 6100 which can act as a minor support area, but major psychological level if breaks we could see sharp sell off till 6000 . On the higher Nifty can only considered in uptrend if it closes above 6250 for few days. Dont rule out a bounce back from these levels but may not sustain for too long. Bank Nifty is extermely weak and is heading towards 10500 levels which is going create extra pressure.

Intraday Levels
We could open positive and I am not ruling out a upward reversal as we have seen one way  downward movement but we will face resistance at 6220 and reverse from there. Nifty above 6190 to 62105 and 6220 and below 6160 we could go to 6145 and 6130.

Top pics for the day
My top pics for the day are  Adani Ent, Tata Steel, Relcap, Idea, Bajaj Auto and Maruti. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels for Indices and key stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Jan 7th, 2014

Nifty opened better than expected at 6220 despite Asia being weak, but started reversinh and was in a range but has failed in its attempts to cross 6200 hundred and closed at 6191 after making a low of 6173. What is important is Nifty was able to close above 50 day DMA of 6190. India VIX is now at 16.5 which is good. FII's were net sellers of 300 Crores.

Short term TrendNifty took support at 50 day EMA and closed above 50 day DMA which is 6190 on Monday. From the past 3 months this is fourth time Nifty took support at 50 day EMA and this is a good indication as bull are not ready to give up and on the other side bears are not that confident. I will stick to my short term levels above 6250 we will head to 6300 and 6350 and below 6160 - 70 we could head to 6100 and 6060. I see a strong chance of visiting 6060 before moving to all time highs with not good economic data and also path for BJP could not be easy despite doing well in recent elections as AAP could split votes and create in stanble government. India VIX is getting better which is good indication of further strength of trend. Nifty could bounce back from this level to 6250, but will not able to cross this level and there is a strong chance of reversing this level and ultimately breach the 50 EMA to go to 6000 levels.

Intraday levels
Nifty could open flat and the bias is towards positivi side as we have seen good fall for four consecutive days. Nifty is good above 6212 for 6227 and 6242 and below 6190 we could go to 6175 and 6160. Please watch rupee which is getting weaker. Banks are looking very weak as we are seeing delivery based selling and export based sectors like Pharma, IT, Textile and Auto ancillaries are doing well and will continue to do well with global economies getting better.

Top pics for the day
My top pics for the day are  Adani Ent, Bank Baroda, Voltas, Bharat Forge, Sunpharm, Havell and JSW Steel. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels for Indices and key stocks

Broader outlook and Key levels for Jan 6th, 2014

Nifty opened at 6191 and made a high of 6221 which is previous days close, but closed at 6211, which is better than expected close. Pharma companies gained and oil refiners were losers based on bad news. As expected we would see activity by FII's from this Monday after a week.

Shortterm Trend
It seems Nifty is consolidating at these levels and is waiting for cues and infact Nifty took support at 6190 which is 50 day DMA on Friday. Nifty has strong resistance at 6250 and has support at 6160 - 6170 which also happens to be 50 day EMA and above 6250 we could see 6300 and 6350 and below 6160 we could see 6100 and 6065 which also happens to be 100 day EMA. We are defiently in medium uprtrend and in the short the trend has become weak after getting below key support area of 6250 level very easily. I strongly feel 6100 is a very key level to be watched buy bulls for a major trend change as I see a strong support. As we have results season starting big IT boy Infosys coming with results on Dec 10th, 2014, I am expecting lot of action from second half of the week and sectors to be watched are Pharma and IT for longs and Auto and Infra for shorts. I can strongly say we are going down as actions back after holidays for FII's.

Intraday Levels
We could see weak opening, but we could see bounce from lower levels as we have key support at 6190 which is 50 day DMA and also Nifty took support at 6190 on Friday and I feel it is a key level to be watched. Above 6220 we could see 6235 and 6250 which is a major resistance and below 6190 we could see 6175 abd 6160 which is again a very good support zone. As we are between strong support and resistance zone we could action between levels till we see breaking this level either side for a stronger move.

Top pics for the day
My top pics for the day are Auro Pharma, Adani Ent, Lupin, M&M and Maruti. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels for Indices and key stocks

Broader outlook and levels for Jan 3rd, 2014

Nifty started well and was in a range till 2 PM and when suddenly hell broke as is started dropped in choppy trade as European stocks declined as gauges of manufacturing in China and also based on some rumours in the market and closed at 6212. All the heavy weights lead by banking started reversing all its early morning gains and later we have seen across the board selling. What we have seen is FII's buying to the tune of 600 crores .

Shorterm Trend
The trend is now bearish with the type of fall we have seen, I told u before that 6350 is strong resistance and Nifty was not able to cross it till after noon and now it is below 6250 which is a good support area. Nifty above 6250 is good for 6280 and 6320 and below 6160 we could see 6100 and 6060. I am expecting a range of 6000 - 6400 this series. VIX coming back to 17 levels is good as it has moved to 16.5 and so we will see more action.

Intraday Levels
We are going to see gapup down to the extend of 60 points as indicated and so we could open around 6160. I feel we can stay above 6160 by end of the day it is fine,but we trade below this level we could see more pain and is heading towards 6100. Below 6160 we could go to 6145 and 6130 and above 6180 we could go to 6195. Keep a eye on banks which could be biggest movers.


Top pics for the day
My top pics for the day are Yes Bank, Sun TV, Adani Ent, IDFC and PNB. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels for Indices and key stocks

Broader outlook for Jan 2nd, 2014

Not much to talk about, I would avoid it as nothing has happened yesterday and my previous days levels are valid for today.

Market will open flat and we may see some action from second half of the day and tomorrow, but real action starts from Jan 6th, 2014(Monday). Nifty good above 6320 and weak below 6280 for the day


Top picks for the day
My top pics for the day are Asian Paints, BataIndia, RelInfra, MCDowell and Bajaj Auto. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of  key stocks

Wish you a very happy new year and outlook for Jan 1st, 2014

 

As expected Nifty opened above 6300 and made a low of 6287 and and was in a range whole. It is boring day without much activity and most of the stocks were in a range. Nifty failed to cross alltime yearly high of 6330 and ended at 6302. Volumes have dried out as expected

Shorterm Trend
Nifty has closed just above 6300 which is immediate resistance, but for it to make  a move higher levels it should close above 6320 levels for 6350 and 6400 which at key resistances for a move to  all time highs and below 6260 which is acting as strong support we could reach 6200 and 6160 with in no time.VIX is now trading above 15 and when it reaches 17 we could see a real actvity in market.

Intraday Trend
Nifty could open flat as I see less volumes and activity. I am sticking to yesterdays levels of Nifty above 6320, we could see 6335 and 6350 and on the downside below 6300  we could go to 6285 and 6270.

Top picks for the day
My top pics for the day are TataMotors, HCL Tech, Century Text, MCDowell and BHEL. For Buy/Sell and correct levels contact vijaykumarrao.invest@gmail.com.

Pivot levels of  key stocks